292
FXUS65 KBYZ 231014
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
414 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS INCLUDE
STRONG WINDS, MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW), AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 40S AND 50S MPH.
- THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT IMPACT TRAVEL AND RECREATION IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT YOUNG
LIVESTOCK.
UPDATE
ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE WINDS, STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, AND GOOD LIFT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ENHANCED BY
CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS PUSHED THE ADVISORY OUT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. METRO MODEL SHOWS FOOTHILLS ROADWAYS, INCLUDING
HIGHWAY 78, ROAD TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW TONIGHT SO EXPECTING AT LEAST LOCALLY SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA, INCLUDING RED LODGE. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE MOUNTAINS.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING EAST OF A HYSHAM TO
SHERIDAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN, OVER CENTRAL ZONES. THIS INITIAL AREA
SHOULD SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN PERSISTEN
PRECIPITATION, BUT STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS, THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH A TURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING BACK
IN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION (TURNING TO ALL SNOWFALL) FOR
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
NO CHANGES TO REMAINING WINTER HIGHLITES THIS MORNING. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 40S AND 50S
MPH AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S TODAY, RANGING FROM 20 TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.
A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD 60-80% CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND PRECIP, FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, PRECIP WILL FALL AS
SNOW, WITH EXPECTED 10-18 INCHES OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND 6-12 INCHES OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN TO START, WITH THE
FOOTHILLS SWITCHING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND THE PLAINS SWITCHING TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING. OVER THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS, EXPECT TO SEE 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE FOOTHILLS,
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY A
LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED, WITH DAILY 30-50% CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) BY TUESDAY.
ARCHER
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS IN AND OUT OF
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 45KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, TAPERING OFF ABOUT 10KTS BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL VORT MAX IS MOVING INTO NE MONTANA AT THIS TIME
DRAGGING AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH IT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST AREAS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE DURING
THIS DRIER PERIOD, THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (SNOW ABOVE
4500 FEET). COLDER MORE NORTHERLY PUSH OF AIR DROPS IN MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DROP FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BACK INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE FOR THE END OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM MAINLY RAIN
TO ALL SNOW AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH THIS COLD PUSH AS WELL, MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 030/046 026/048 027/044 031/051 032/062 038/060
7/W 44/J 11/B 14/J 43/W 12/W 23/W
LVM 046 023/040 018/044 023/043 026/051 029/058 034/059
9/T 76/J 22/J 24/J 34/W 12/W 13/W
HDN 052 028/047 024/049 026/046 029/051 030/063 035/062
8/W 44/J 22/J 25/J 53/W 13/W 23/W
MLS 048 028/044 025/044 025/044 028/048 028/059 033/059
9/W 11/N 11/B 14/J 42/J 11/U 11/B
4BQ 050 029/045 025/046 027/042 028/046 027/058 033/057
8/W 22/J 11/B 36/W 52/W 11/B 12/W
BHK 046 024/044 022/043 023/041 026/044 024/054 028/054
9/W 01/N 11/B 25/J 52/W 11/U 11/B
SHR 050 024/041 020/046 023/042 026/047 026/057 031/057
8/W 87/J 33/J 37/W 54/W 23/W 24/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 56-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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