859
FXUS65 KBYZ 091850
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1250 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY, ALONG
WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MID
WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM NW TO SE. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND FAR NORTHERN
WY WILL LIMIT STORM AND SHOWER STRENGTH TODAY. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS ARE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL, AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH ONE
BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING NEAR THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS. THESE
FUNNELS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND BUT IF YOU SEE ANY PLEASE
REPORT THEM, ESPECIALLY IF YOU DO SEE THEM APPROACHING THE
GROUND.
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE, A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.1" OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL EXIST BETWEEN
HARLOWTON TO SHERIDAN AND EAST FROM FORSYTH AND BROADUS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE IS DEPICTED BY MODELS BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM ROUNDUP TO BAKER OVERNIGHT.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, RIDGING WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK,
BRINGING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MT ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MT, WITH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S MPH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST
OF BILLINGS, THE EXTENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPROACHING. FOR NOW, CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK
AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED, WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN FULL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN THOUGH THEIR CURRENT DEPICTIONS GENERALLY
FAVOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY,
WARMING INTO THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HAS HIGHS FORECAST BACK IN THE 70S AND
80S.
MATOS
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING NW TO SE FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF
MONTANA TO THE BIG HORNS REGION IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA AS WELL, GENERALLY THROUGH 01Z WITH IMPACTS MOSTLY
LIKELY AT KSHR AND KBIL. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KTS. MTN TOPS
MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20%)
THROUGH THE EVENING, DECREASING FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z,
LINGERING THROUGH 10Z NEAR KMLS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/080 054/085 050/078 051/094 058/084 053/083 051/081
10/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 21/B
LVM 039/081 050/082 046/082 049/089 052/079 047/078 045/074
00/B 00/N 00/U 01/B 23/T 21/N 22/W
HDN 040/078 050/083 044/081 050/093 055/084 051/084 049/081
20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 11/U 21/B
MLS 043/076 051/083 047/076 048/091 057/084 052/082 051/081
20/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/N 21/B
4BQ 041/073 049/082 047/076 047/089 057/082 051/081 051/081
20/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/B
BHK 037/071 046/082 043/076 044/085 054/083 051/081 050/080
20/B 00/N 00/U 00/N 11/B 21/N 22/W
SHR 036/073 043/081 042/075 043/090 049/081 045/080 044/079
30/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 03/W 22/T 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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