772
FXUS65 KBYZ 101940
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
140 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT, MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER RETURNING FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND
NORTHERN WY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT/WAVE. THERE WILL BE TWO PUSHES WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH AN INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW, IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT. A FEW MODELS
ARE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY AND HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE BEARTOOTHS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY CONCERNS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS A RESULT OF THE VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS, A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
TREASURE, ROSEBUD, CUSTER, FALLON, AND CARTER COUNTIES. WITHIN
THE WARNING, THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND US
HIGHWAY 12.
TUESDAY WILL SEE CALM AND WARM CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS. BASED ON
THE PATTERN, SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THIS PATTERN
TRADITIONALLY FAVORS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING PWATS OF 0.5 TO 0.75" AND MODEST INSTABILITY
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WEEK.
MATOS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. SW TO W WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KTS OVER THE AREA,
STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK. A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/084 047/077 050/092 060/080 055/081 051/075 046/069
01/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 22/W 31/B
LVM 050/081 043/081 048/089 054/080 048/075 043/069 038/066
01/N 00/U 01/B 25/T 44/T 33/W 32/T
HDN 049/082 044/078 048/093 057/082 052/081 049/076 044/070
00/B 00/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 22/W 22/W
MLS 050/082 045/076 046/089 059/082 053/075 051/071 046/065
01/N 00/U 00/U 12/T 33/T 32/W 22/W
4BQ 048/081 046/074 045/089 059/082 053/073 051/070 045/065
00/B 10/U 00/U 01/B 32/T 32/W 22/W
BHK 045/082 042/074 041/085 054/082 050/073 048/069 042/063
00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 23/T 32/W 32/W
SHR 043/080 041/074 042/088 051/078 046/078 043/073 039/066
01/B 10/U 00/U 02/T 33/T 34/W 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 130-132-133.
WY...NONE.
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