995
FXUS65 KBYZ 110708
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
108 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER RETURNING FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA WILL DROP A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE TWO PUSHES WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AN INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING THIS MORNING. THEN, PRESSURE RISES SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH EACH PUSH, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE) NEAR THE DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SECOND
PUSH. OTHERWISE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9
PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF TREASURE, ROSEBUD, CUSTER, FALLON, AND
CARTER COUNTIES. WITHIN THE WARNING, THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94 AND US HIGHWAY 12.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S BEFORE INCREASING TO 80S TO LOW 90S
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 35 MPH.
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR A TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WIDESPREAD
30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
A 20-40% CHANCE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY, FALLING FROM LOW 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY TO MOSTLY 60S
BY SUNDAY. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. WINDS MIX
OUT AROUND 16Z. A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KTS OVER THE AREA, STRONGEST
OVER NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK. A FEW HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 047/077 050/091 060/082 052/080 051/076 046/068
0/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 32/T 32/W 22/W
LVM 082 042/080 047/089 052/075 045/075 044/070 039/063
0/N 00/U 01/B 36/T 33/T 33/W 32/W
HDN 082 044/077 048/092 056/082 050/081 048/077 044/068
0/B 00/U 00/U 14/T 32/T 32/W 22/W
MLS 082 045/075 046/090 058/084 052/080 050/077 046/068
0/N 30/U 00/N 12/T 31/U 32/W 31/N
4BQ 081 046/073 045/090 059/083 050/078 049/076 046/067
0/B 00/U 00/U 03/T 41/U 32/W 32/W
BHK 081 042/073 041/084 054/084 050/077 048/076 045/067
1/N 30/U 00/N 11/N 22/W 23/W 32/W
SHR 081 041/073 042/089 051/080 044/077 043/074 040/065
0/B 10/U 00/U 04/T 33/T 23/T 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 130-132-133.
WY...NONE.
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