307
FXUS65 KBYZ 120725
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
125 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WIDESPREAD WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
- PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY, COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST AREAS,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S, A GOOD 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S
AND 30S MPH, STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AND
OVER THE FAR EAST NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. OVER THE EAST,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW, AND AT THIS TIME, DON'T ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITES FOR EASTERN AREAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
ENERGY LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) TO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEST CAPE (200-500 J/KG), STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WIND THREAT, AND SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ENSEMBLES PROG THE
TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW, LIFTING NORTH AND EAST, EITHER
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER, OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT SPREADING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD MEAN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
OUR AREA INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK BRINGING THE
GREATER POTENTIAL. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS FOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF
40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (30-50% CHANCE
OF 60 MPH WINDS). WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLITES AS WELL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S MOST DAYS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. STP
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (06Z WED)
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED RISKS TO AVIATION. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 049/092 056/073 048/077 048/071 042/061 038/069
0/U 01/B 22/W 00/U 02/T 42/W 11/B
LVM 079 042/088 045/067 041/072 041/063 033/055 032/064
0/U 02/T 42/W 00/N 14/T 43/T 11/B
HDN 076 044/092 053/075 045/076 045/073 041/061 036/068
0/U 01/U 22/W 00/U 01/B 32/W 21/B
MLS 075 046/090 055/074 048/075 046/074 043/061 037/067
0/U 00/N 22/W 10/N 00/B 42/W 11/B
4BQ 072 044/090 056/073 046/074 046/076 042/059 037/064
0/U 00/U 21/N 00/U 00/B 32/W 22/W
BHK 072 041/084 052/072 045/074 044/075 041/059 035/063
0/U 00/N 21/N 10/N 01/B 42/W 11/B
SHR 073 042/089 047/073 039/073 041/074 036/057 032/064
0/U 01/U 21/N 00/U 01/U 34/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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