084
FXUS65 KBYZ 140626
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1226 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY; 60+ MPH
GUSTS LIKELY ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH
GAP, AND 40-55 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
- DRY AND STILL BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS BROUGHT DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THIS PUSH OF PRECIPITATION, STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND QUICKLY RISING
PRESSURE WILL CREATE BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (FROM BIG
TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH HARLOWTON) WITH GUSTS 60-70 MPH
POSSIBLE. AREAS EAST (THROUGH CARBON, SOUTHWEST YELLOWSTONE AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES) ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS 45-60 MPH. THE
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL WARM AND DRY. WITH
GREEN UP UNDERWAY, THE CONCERN FOR FIRE SPREAD IS LOW. HOWEVER,
GIVEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, PEOPLE SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION AND
NOT CAUSE A SPARK.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY, WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE
(STRONGEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MT). LATE SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES BRING
IN TROUGHING, BUT ARE DIFFERING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS. ENSEMBLES DO
GIVE THE REGION BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WITH AROUND 1+ INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, TOTALS RANGES FROM 0.4-0.8 INCHES. CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY, BUT THERE IS HOPE FOR APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY, COOLING TO THE
40S AND 50S THROUGH TUESDAY. TS
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS,
STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT) DURING
THE MORNING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WHILE
BRIEF, LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE (SLIGHT
CHANCE) DUE TO BLOWING DUST WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP TODAY,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 047/072 041/071 041/050 036/051 035/063 042/064
0/N 00/N 00/B 55/W 54/W 21/B 23/T
LVM 070 040/068 036/065 032/042 028/047 029/058 035/062
0/N 00/N 03/T 88/T 75/T 22/T 23/T
HDN 075 045/073 038/073 041/053 035/051 033/063 039/064
0/N 00/N 00/B 35/W 65/W 21/B 23/T
MLS 074 046/072 039/073 044/057 036/050 034/061 040/064
0/N 00/N 00/B 44/W 55/W 31/B 22/W
4BQ 073 042/072 038/074 045/056 036/047 033/059 039/062
0/N 00/U 00/B 33/W 66/W 21/B 12/W
BHK 073 043/071 036/072 043/058 034/046 031/058 037/062
0/N 00/N 00/B 45/W 66/W 32/W 12/W
SHR 075 039/072 035/072 037/049 030/045 028/058 034/061
0/N 00/U 00/B 38/T 87/T 22/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 29-34-42-63-141-172-228-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 56-139-170.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
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