171
FXUS65 KBYZ 141902
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
102 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND STILL BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
STRONG WEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AS OF NOON
BUT PEAK GUSTS ARE STARTING TO SLACKEN AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
DECREASING, IN RESPONSE TO EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN SK. DESPITE TEMPS THAT ARE 20-25F COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY, VERY DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. PLEASE BE CAREFUL TO NOT SPARK A FIRE.
HAVE DROPPED THE GAP LOCATIONS' WIND ADVISORY BUT FOR NOW WILL
LET THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR OTHER ZONES, WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
STILL BEING OBSERVED OVER OUR NW AS OF NOON. GUSTS EAST OF THE
WARNED AREA ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERALL, PEAK GUSTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER BUT TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE
BREEZY/WELL-MIXED UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 MPH. RHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. WINDS
FINALLY DECREASE AS THIS REGIME EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NEAR THE WA
COAST. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD QUICKLY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT LIKELY NOTHING
MORE AS THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY. THAT SAID, CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES/VIRGA OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TOMORROW AND
MID 60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY, THE LATTER BEING A LITTLE WARMER
OVER THE EAST AS FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR A COOL & WET
WEATHER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER CHANCES
OF PRECIP (INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) IS HIGH. DETAILS ARE MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
DEEPER TROF WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPING N-NE WINDS (RATHER THAN A
DRIER OPEN WAVE). EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7KFT, WHICH ALONG
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL STOP THE ONGOING HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
MELT AND LET RIVER FLOWS SUBSIDE A BIT. IF A DYNAMIC LOW DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTH, LEAVING US IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH UPSLOPE WINDS,
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT NOT
ONLY INCLUDES MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT POTENTIAL WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. A FEW ENSEMBLES EVEN SHOW SOME WET SNOW AT BILLINGS,
WHICH FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED (~3" FELL IN
THE CITY OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN 2012). CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR 0.20-0.50" OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE FOOTHILLS, AND
0.50-1.00" ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTH ASPECTS OF OUR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO, 90TH PERCENTILE QPF IS FOR NEAR AN INCH
AT BILLINGS AND 2" OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LONG STORY SHORT,
STILL A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT YET SO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S SUNDAY/MONDAY, THEN A TREND
WARMER TO THE 60S/LOWER 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONSENSUS
IS FOR HIGHER HEIGHTS TOWARD MIDWEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME.
JKL
AVIATION
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AREAS FROM K6S0 TO
K1KM WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-35 KT RANGE.
KBHK WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GUSTING INTO THE
20-35 KT RANGE. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/072 042/072 041/052 035/047 033/060 038/067 043/072
00/N 00/B 55/W 56/W 32/W 11/B 22/W
LVM 040/068 037/064 032/045 027/044 026/055 032/061 037/067
00/N 01/E 98/T 87/T 32/T 24/T 23/T
HDN 045/072 038/075 040/055 034/048 031/060 035/067 040/072
00/U 00/B 24/W 66/W 52/W 11/B 22/W
MLS 046/071 039/075 043/057 036/048 032/058 036/066 042/071
00/N 00/B 42/W 46/W 52/W 11/B 12/W
4BQ 042/071 037/076 044/057 035/044 032/055 035/064 041/069
00/U 00/B 43/W 67/W 52/W 11/B 22/W
BHK 042/070 036/074 042/058 033/045 030/054 032/063 039/068
00/N 00/B 66/W 56/W 63/W 11/B 12/W
SHR 038/071 035/074 036/051 029/042 027/054 031/063 035/068
00/U 00/B 17/T 98/T 53/T 12/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 29-34-42-63-141-172-228-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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