159
FXUS65 KBYZ 150714
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
114 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY TODAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MONITOR THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTED
LOW WELL OFF THE THE NORTHEAST. WHILE STRONG WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TODAY UNDER WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. GUSTS AROUND 25-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, DROPPING OFF IN THE
EVENING. TAKE CARE TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK AS DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. ENSEMBLES DO DEPICT SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
OVER MT GIVING PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT ABOUT A 10% OR LESS
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE DRY DOWNSLOPING PATTERN, LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES
THEN SHOW TROUGHING MOVING IN LATE SATURDAY, GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A COOL AND WET PATTERN CHANGE. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST RUN ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, THE NBM IS GIVING AROUND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
(HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT), A 60-70% CHANCE FOR AREA FOOTHILLS,
AND 60-80% CHANCE FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. AREA MOUNTAINS HAVE ABOUT A
60-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH BEARTOOTH/RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS AT ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES.
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS EMERGING PATTERN IS THAT WITH WHERE THE LOW IS
SETTING UP, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY A PORTION OF THE REGION MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIPITATION FROM BEING IN A DRY SLOT OF
THE LOW. THIS WILL MAKE A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE POSITION OF THE
LOW IS BOUND TO SHIFT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEADING UP TO
THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
MAKE WAY FOR SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY
KEEP AN ACTIVE PATTERN GOING THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY AND SATURDAY,
COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE COOLEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
TAKE CARE TO PROTECT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE 60S LOW 70S BY MID WEEK. TS
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SPRINKLES/VIRGA TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN
10%). EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING
IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S KNOTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 046/071 041/052 034/043 032/057 037/068 044/074
0/N 00/B 66/W 67/W 42/W 01/B 11/B
LVM 066 040/062 032/044 027/041 025/055 032/064 039/070
0/N 06/T 98/T 87/W 31/B 12/T 12/T
HDN 072 042/074 040/055 032/045 030/058 033/068 040/075
0/B 00/B 45/W 68/W 52/W 11/B 12/W
MLS 071 042/075 045/057 035/045 033/056 035/067 042/073
0/N 00/B 43/W 57/W 64/W 11/B 11/B
4BQ 071 041/076 046/058 034/041 031/052 033/064 041/071
0/U 00/B 32/W 78/W 74/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 070 039/075 043/058 031/043 029/051 030/064 038/071
0/N 00/B 55/W 58/W 74/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 036/072 037/052 029/039 026/051 029/062 034/070
0/U 00/E 26/W 99/W 63/W 12/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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