284
FXUS65 KBYZ 151910
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
110 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY TODAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MONITOR THE FORECAST.
- FREEZING MORNING LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS, PROTECT SENSITIVE
PLANTS.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 70S F NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS TROUGHING WILL EJECT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE
PLAINS. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE INDICATING THIS LOW TRACK WILL CREATE A DRY
SLOT SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LEADING TO A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO
THIS, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE MAIN SOURCE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IS HOW FAR THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP. SOME
(33%) ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THIS LOW SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS (NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE) SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MONTANA. THE REMAINING
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (66%) LOCATE THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS (KANSAS) BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THE NBM IS SHOWING LOCATIONS FROM BILLING TO
MILES CITY AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY HAVING THE LOWEST CHANCES
(30-50%) FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
(80-100%).
LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GET AS LOW AS
4,000 FT MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS 50-90% FOR ALL
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHILE THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 12 INCHES
GENERALLY REMAINS LESS THAN 30%. TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S KNOTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/071 041/053 035/046 032/061 038/068 043/073 047/073
00/B 64/W 46/W 41/B 01/B 11/B 12/T
LVM 039/062 031/046 027/045 026/057 032/063 037/069 041/070
06/T 98/T 66/T 21/B 12/T 12/T 22/T
HDN 041/074 039/056 033/048 030/061 035/069 040/073 044/074
00/B 44/W 46/W 41/B 01/B 11/B 12/T
MLS 042/076 045/058 035/047 033/058 035/067 041/072 046/072
00/B 21/N 46/W 52/W 01/B 11/B 12/W
4BQ 041/077 045/059 034/043 031/055 034/065 041/070 045/072
00/B 22/W 57/W 62/W 01/B 11/B 12/W
BHK 038/076 043/059 031/043 029/053 032/064 039/069 043/070
00/B 65/W 27/W 74/W 01/B 11/B 12/W
SHR 036/073 037/052 029/041 026/054 030/063 035/068 039/072
00/B 25/W 88/W 53/T 12/T 12/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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