613
FXUS65 KBYZ 260303
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN WYOMING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED AS BIT. STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN (HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND). THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
HIGHER FLOWS COMBINED WITH COLD WATER COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE
RECREATING IN/NEAR WATERWAYS.
WITH THE HEAT, THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST, GREATEST OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL/WESTERN WYOMING MOST DAYS. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY,
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (SYNOPTIC
AND CONVECTIVE VS JUST CONVECTIVE), BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
TODAY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS), THOUGH A
SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE (25 PERCENT
CHANCE) OVER AND NEAR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
TODAY'S ACTIVITY ARE ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (AROUND AND
WEST OF BILLINGS), ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH BETTER MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE, THERE IS BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY, HOWEVER,
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. SO A BRIEF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. WITH THAT SAID, THE MAIN THREATS TUESDAY ARE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
MODELED ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURSTS, SO AN
ISOLATED WIND GUST TO 60 MPH OR GREATER IS POSSIBLE (SLIGHT
CHANCE). WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER WITH
LESS INSTABILITY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED, AT LEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA (AGAIN AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS). FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH REMAINS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES.
OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA, WHERE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LESS
THIS WEEK, WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE GUSTS WILL VARY BETWEEN 20
AND 40 MPH AT TIMES, STRONGEST NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS STATE
LINE. ARENDS
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT LATE TUESDAY MORNING, MOVING SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AT KLVM (25%)
FROM 18-03Z AND AT KBIL (20%) FROM 21-04Z. KSHR AND KMLS HAVE
AROUND A 10-15% CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 40-50 KTS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHERN WY,
GUSTING 20-30KTS. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/093 060/090 060/093 061/091 060/080 054/082 054/082
12/T 32/T 00/B 01/U 24/T 32/T 32/T
LVM 049/084 050/082 051/087 051/083 048/073 044/076 045/080
16/T 56/T 11/U 33/T 35/T 34/T 22/T
HDN 054/094 060/090 060/093 060/092 059/081 052/083 052/083
12/T 21/B 00/B 01/U 24/W 32/T 22/T
MLS 061/096 067/093 065/092 064/091 062/084 054/082 054/082
02/T 20/N 11/N 11/U 35/T 42/T 22/T
4BQ 059/094 065/090 062/088 061/089 059/083 054/082 054/080
02/T 20/N 11/N 01/U 34/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 058/094 061/090 060/088 060/085 059/082 053/081 052/080
02/T 20/N 01/N 11/N 25/T 33/T 22/T
SHR 047/090 052/086 051/087 052/088 051/079 045/079 045/078
12/T 22/T 01/N 12/T 24/T 23/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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