624
FXUS65 KBYZ 280650
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST AND AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SLOWLY SLIDING
EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS PATTERN HAS PUMPED HIGHER
PWATS INTO OUR REGION, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO FAR WEST TO EJECT
ANY DECENT ENERGY OR PERTURBATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS KEEPS
THE STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR TODAY WHERE ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SMALL HAIL
ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AS IS A QUICK BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH A FEW
CELLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
AGAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BRISK OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS (MILES CITY, BAKER) WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
NEVADA AND UTAH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BETTER FORCING
CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE IS SUGGESTED IN OUR WESTERN CWA. WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF GUSTS TO 60+ MPH AND POSSIBLY HAIL,
ESPECIALLY NW OF BILLINGS IN THE WHEATLAND COUNTY VICINITY. TEMPS
MAY REACH THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THE ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS
WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHED WINDS OUT EAST OVER THE
PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAKENING LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA, WHILE OTHERS
WRAP IT UP OVER OUR REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. LATEST CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION (60% CHANCE). THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED RAINY AND COOLER PERIOD FOR
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY. WE COULD SEE A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST SATURDAY, WITH OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING. ANOTHER WAVE COULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. AT
ANY RATE, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5+ INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY RANGES FROM 40-80%, GREATEST OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO 80S SATURDAY, TO THE 60S TO 70S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BT
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (40KTS @ 2KFT AGL) TO
AREAS FROM BILLINGS EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING MIX OUT TIME. BY 16Z
WILL SEE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE BECOMING COMMON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (BILLINGS EASTWARD) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 20Z, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS (03Z). MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE EVENING.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 061/093 062/077 052/067 049/070 048/074 049/077
0/B 22/T 19/T 97/T 43/T 21/B 21/B
LVM 087 052/085 051/066 042/059 041/066 041/072 042/074
2/T 22/T 5+/T 98/T 54/T 32/T 12/T
HDN 092 058/093 058/081 050/070 046/071 044/076 047/078
0/E 22/T 18/T 87/T 53/T 21/B 21/B
MLS 091 064/094 062/086 054/074 050/071 049/075 050/077
0/N 10/B 28/T 66/T 53/W 32/W 31/B
4BQ 087 062/092 061/084 053/073 049/072 049/076 051/077
0/N 11/U 37/T 56/T 43/W 32/W 32/W
BHK 088 059/089 058/083 052/077 047/072 047/075 049/076
0/N 00/N 18/T 65/T 33/W 33/W 32/W
SHR 085 052/088 051/077 044/068 043/069 042/074 044/076
2/T 22/T 19/T 78/T 55/T 22/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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