518
FXUS65 KBYZ 281947
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
147 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND. CURRENTLY THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR AREAS EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION, GREATEST OVER THE WEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER 9,000 FT, INCLUDING IMPACTS TO THE BEARTOOTH HWY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN STILL IN PLACE, WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO EASTERN MT KEEPING HIGHER
HEIGHTS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S TO
90S THROUGH FRIDAY, GENERALLY WARMEST OVER THE EAST. SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY EAST OF BILLINGS, WHERE
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING, BEFORE BACKING OFF SOME TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY, KEEPING BREEZY WINDS CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE)
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN AREAS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE
RAINFALL UNDERNEATH THE CORES. AS GREATER FORCING MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST, AS WE GET CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPC.
THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH AND EAST INTO WYOMING BY SATURDAY, SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED
INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND WIND ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE PROBABILITY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM (40-90%,
GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS), WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM 25% IN THE EAST TO
70% WEST. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL NEAR 9,000 FEET, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY. THE RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS
LOW OVERALL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED CONCERNS
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON RECENT BURN SCARS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 80S
SATURDAY, TO THE 60S TO 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80, THOUGH COOLER WEATHER COULD REMAIN IN PLACE DELAYING THE WARM
UP. STP
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STRONG
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAINFALL. TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM ARE KLVM AND KSHR. THE BEST
TIMING FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IS 18Z TO 03Z FOR KSHR AND 21Z
TO 03Z FOR KLVM. LOOK FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 40
KNOTS (STRONGEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER) OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BY 06Z. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/091 061/075 052/065 046/070 046/076 049/079 051/081
22/T 29/T 97/T 54/W 11/B 11/B 22/T
LVM 049/085 049/065 042/056 039/066 039/074 043/077 045/078
22/T 3+/T 99/T 54/T 11/B 11/B 34/T
HDN 054/093 056/077 050/069 044/072 044/078 046/080 048/082
22/T 28/T 87/T 53/W 21/B 11/B 22/T
MLS 062/094 060/086 054/075 047/072 046/077 049/079 051/081
10/U 28/T 77/T 54/W 31/B 11/B 22/T
4BQ 059/092 058/083 052/073 046/072 046/077 048/080 051/081
21/U 38/T 57/T 62/W 21/U 11/B 33/T
BHK 056/088 054/080 050/077 045/072 044/077 046/079 047/080
00/N 27/T 75/T 63/W 42/W 22/T 23/T
SHR 050/088 050/073 044/067 040/070 039/076 041/078 043/080
22/T 29/T 68/T 54/T 12/T 12/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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