670
FXUS65 KBYZ 161915
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
115 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOL DOWN ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
WIND CONCERNS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG JET
STREAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO
50 KT RANGE. SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF A
BILLINGS TO RED LODGE LINE, HAVE A 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER
IN WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS BIG TIMBER, LIVINGSTON, AND HARLOWTON,
INCLUDING THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS, WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING
INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS MILES CITY AND BAKER.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MOST AREAS AREN'T EXPECTED TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SOME SIGNALS
FOR INSTABILITY/MUCAPE. CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. KLVM WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AT TIMES. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST, MT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KMLS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN THE 02Z-08Z TIMEFRAME, GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE AT KSHR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER A BRIEF LULL
THIS EVENING.
TS POTENTIAL TIMES:
KMLS: 02Z-08Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/075 051/078 052/082 057/081 056/079 053/076 052/081
00/N 10/U 00/U 02/T 43/T 33/T 21/U
LVM 052/075 044/078 044/081 049/077 047/077 045/075 045/082
00/N 10/U 00/B 06/T 74/T 33/T 21/U
HDN 056/075 048/076 048/082 055/083 054/078 050/076 049/081
10/N 11/U 00/U 02/T 63/T 33/W 11/U
MLS 056/072 048/074 048/077 053/080 054/074 050/074 050/078
42/N 11/U 00/U 02/T 64/W 23/W 21/U
4BQ 057/072 048/073 048/080 055/080 054/072 050/073 050/077
20/N 11/B 00/U 13/T 76/W 34/W 32/W
BHK 049/067 042/070 043/075 047/076 049/069 045/072 045/075
66/T 21/B 00/U 02/T 66/W 24/T 31/U
SHR 053/071 045/072 045/081 050/080 049/074 046/073 045/077
00/N 11/U 00/U 16/T 76/T 46/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page