045
FXUS65 KBYZ 180217
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
817 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
THE WINDS AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE THE CHANCE IS
LOW, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN LOW- LYING AREAS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (UP TO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE). LA
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVELS WINDS WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS 30-45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE
ENERGY AND BEST FORCING LOOKS TO SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, SO
THE CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS IN MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW, BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH
ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE LOW TO THE NORTH INTO MONDAY, LOW TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST (HIGHEST IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN). BY MID WEEK CLUSTERS SHOW A GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL, IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TS
AVIATION
02Z DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WELL. THURSDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. WITH THIS, KMLS AND KBHK HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHTNING (25 PERCENT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/077 051/079 056/081 057/079 053/073 051/081 055/086
02/W 00/B 02/T 32/T 23/W 10/U 12/T
LVM 044/078 044/080 048/078 047/077 044/073 044/082 048/086
00/U 00/B 17/T 63/T 22/T 01/U 12/T
HDN 047/077 048/079 054/082 054/078 050/073 048/081 052/086
02/T 00/B 01/E 43/T 33/W 11/U 12/T
MLS 048/073 049/074 053/079 054/074 050/071 049/077 052/082
04/T 20/U 02/T 75/T 23/W 11/U 12/T
4BQ 047/074 049/076 054/080 054/073 050/070 049/076 052/081
02/T 00/U 04/T 87/T 35/W 21/U 22/T
BHK 042/071 043/072 046/074 048/069 045/069 044/074 046/078
13/T 20/U 02/T 77/T 24/W 21/U 12/T
SHR 044/073 044/079 050/079 050/074 046/070 045/077 048/083
00/U 00/B 06/T 67/T 56/T 22/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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