366
FXUS65 KBYZ 270441
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1041 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A RISK LEVEL 3 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING A SECONDARY THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
- SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8300 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2".
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS VERY LOW GOING FORWARD TONIGHT. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY TODAY. THE
THREAT DECREASES TO THE WEST WITH LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS WEST
BEING IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 THREAT. 500 MB TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL
CREATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING HELPING TO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BEFORE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON. HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAPPING IN THE
MORNING BEING OVERCOME BY STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST
RISK AREAS WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1-2,000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE.
MODELS ARE TURNING THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTO STRONG STORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HREF RUN SHOWS HELICITY TRACKS
MOVING OFF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SHEAR PROFILES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INDICATE STORMS STARTING OUT DISCRETE BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO MCS LIKE STRUCTURES. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR INDICATE A BOWING MCS STRUCTURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. ALL WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE IN PLAY TOMORROW INCLUDING WEAK TORNADOES, HAIL >2.0 INCHES,
WIND GUSTS >70 MPH, AND HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM RED LODGE TO MILES CITY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-70%) LINGER
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GET LOW ENOUGH (~8,000 FT) SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO ALLOW 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 60S
AND 70S F SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO THE 80S F BY WEDNESDAY. TORGERSON
AVIATION
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH
TERMINALS EAST OF KBIL HAVE BEGUN TO SEE CLEARING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUNDERSTORM TIMING FOR SITES:
KLVM: 18Z-06Z
KBIL: 21Z-04Z
KSHR: 20Z-03Z
KMLS: 00Z-04Z
MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/075 052/071 050/069 052/078 054/084 057/088 059/092
48/T 82/T 25/T 21/B 11/U 10/U 02/T
LVM 050/069 043/062 040/059 041/072 045/078 047/083 050/086
27/T 96/T 68/T 42/T 23/T 21/U 02/T
HDN 058/078 050/074 049/073 050/080 051/086 054/090 057/094
27/T 63/T 44/W 21/B 11/U 10/U 01/U
MLS 061/081 054/075 052/073 052/079 054/086 058/090 061/093
25/T 83/W 54/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 01/U
4BQ 061/081 054/077 053/075 052/080 055/087 058/092 061/095
16/T 51/U 43/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 01/U
BHK 059/086 052/077 051/075 049/078 052/085 055/090 058/092
33/T 71/U 64/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 12/T
SHR 054/076 047/072 045/072 045/077 047/084 051/088 054/092
16/T 53/T 52/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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