911
FXUS65 KBYZ 160639
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1239 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY WEST OF BILLINGS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND; DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND, IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS AROUND 140-180% OF
NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH
MOISTURE, WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) OVER PORTIONS OF MONTANA MAINLY FROM LIVINGSTON WEST AND
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE (COMPARATIVELY) DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION, WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND
130% OF NORMAL ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN AGAIN,
RESUMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
(40-60%).
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE BRIEFLY SHIFT NORTH, INCREASING
HIGHS TO 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN, THE RIDGE FLATTENS
SOME AND SHIFTS BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
ARCHER
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS AND IN
AN AREA FROM KSHR TO KMLS THRU ~09Z THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED FOG FROM 08-15Z WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WHICH
INCLUDES KBIL. FOG IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE NOW BUT IF IT DEVELOPS
EXPECT FLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 25-45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
TODAY'S STORMS. JKL
TS POTENTIAL TIMES:
KLVM: 19Z-02Z
KBIL: 22Z-04Z
KSHR: 19Z-05Z
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 066/094 067/096 067/097 066/092 065/088 064/087
1/U 52/B 61/U 41/U 10/U 23/T 42/T
LVM 090 057/091 058/094 058/095 057/092 058/084 056/085
3/T 34/T 63/T 41/U 01/U 25/T 55/T
HDN 093 065/096 066/097 066/097 064/093 063/090 062/088
1/U 51/B 61/B 31/U 10/U 13/T 42/T
MLS 095 067/095 069/100 069/099 066/093 064/089 064/088
1/U 21/B 62/T 31/U 11/U 11/B 33/W
4BQ 094 067/095 069/099 068/097 066/092 064/087 063/086
1/B 31/B 43/T 51/U 21/U 22/T 53/T
BHK 094 063/093 063/096 065/097 062/091 059/086 059/085
1/B 11/B 32/T 42/T 11/U 11/B 33/T
SHR 091 060/093 061/095 062/094 059/091 059/087 058/085
4/T 54/T 44/T 44/T 32/T 35/T 56/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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