380
FXUS65 KBYZ 271208
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
608 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- SMOKE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY ARE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MT.
- DAILY CHANCE (10-30%) FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE
ARE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME, SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT
WAVE AND PUSH OF MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE) TO LIFT NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING FARTHER EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MT INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH TODAY
TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. STP
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING BRINGING WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND LIGHTNING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REGULARLY BE IN THE 90S TO 100F EACH DAY ALONG
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TODAY, A FEW OF THE LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS ARE DEPICTING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE PRYORS AND NORTHERN
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS
IS WORTH MONITORING, AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RRFS SHOW SEVERE WIND
GUSTS (GREATER THAN 60 MPH) IN SOUTHERN POWDER RIVER AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH CARTER COUNTY INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH TODAY.
SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS WELL. ALONG WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY,
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT LOWER AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY REMAIN A TOUCH HIGHER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY LOWER HIGHS AND HIGHER MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
SEVERAL NEURAL NETWORKS ARE DEPICTING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA, TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THIS WEEK
PROGRESSES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK,
WITH A SYSTEM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLATTENING THE PATTERN AND
BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW.
MATOS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MT, WITH WIND GUSTS 40-60 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN SOME
LOCATIONS, WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 066/099 066/098 066/099 067/100 067/104 070/100
2/T 12/T 21/U 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
LVM 092 057/096 058/095 057/099 058/099 059/103 061/099
2/T 22/T 11/U 10/U 11/U 00/G 10/U
HDN 095 064/101 065/100 064/100 065/100 064/104 068/100
2/T 12/T 21/U 20/U 11/U 00/G 00/U
MLS 099 068/102 070/102 068/099 068/100 067/104 073/101
2/W 12/W 22/T 31/U 21/U 10/G 00/G
4BQ 099 068/099 069/099 066/096 067/098 067/101 072/100
2/T 22/T 35/T 51/U 11/U 10/G 00/U
BHK 099 064/099 065/101 064/097 063/097 063/100 067/101
2/T 22/W 23/T 52/W 22/T 10/U 00/G
SHR 093 062/096 063/097 061/096 062/098 061/100 065/099
2/T 12/T 13/T 21/U 01/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
30-31-36-58-169.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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