037
FXUS65 KBYZ 140738
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
138 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TROUGHING AND A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GRADUALLY
CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEST CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR AT 20-30 KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DRYER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST MT WHERE A LOW CHANCE
EXISTS. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD LOOKS BEST FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS (50-80%).
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF RECREATING NEAR ANY BURN SCARS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL, THE REGION MAINTAINS A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NO
PROMINENT DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWING IN THE ENSEMBLES, THIS PATTERN
WILL GIVE WAY TO CONTINUED DAILY LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPERS 60S AND 70S TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR NEXT WEEK. TS
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR TERMINALS
INCLUDING AND EAST OF KMLS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRATUS/FOG AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE FOR KLVM, KBIL,
AND KSHR. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. STP/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 057/075 056/083 058/086 058/078 055/079 056/083
6/T 63/T 40/U 31/B 64/T 42/W 31/B
LVM 071 045/077 045/082 048/084 047/077 044/078 045/081
8/T 74/T 51/U 32/T 86/T 63/T 22/T
HDN 075 052/077 051/084 053/088 054/080 050/081 051/085
4/W 54/T 31/U 11/B 64/T 42/W 21/B
MLS 075 055/076 053/084 057/088 058/079 053/080 054/084
6/T 11/B 22/W 11/B 44/T 42/W 22/T
4BQ 077 057/076 055/083 058/088 059/081 056/080 056/084
4/W 22/B 34/W 11/B 44/T 43/T 32/T
BHK 075 052/076 049/082 053/088 054/079 050/079 050/083
9/T 30/B 01/U 21/B 45/T 43/T 23/T
SHR 074 050/073 048/080 050/084 051/078 049/078 048/082
5/T 57/T 41/U 11/B 35/T 43/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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