383
FXUS65 KBYZ 150626
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1226 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY LOWERS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S F FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS LOW TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SHOWERS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, A
SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS WHERE 1000 J/KG OR LESS
OF MUCAPE AND 20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR AN INCH, HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS. INTO MONDAY,
ENSEMBLES THE SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA DRAGGING SOME ENERGY BEHIND IT, KEEPING LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY, A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS, CLUSTERS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S (NEAR NORMAL) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TS
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS (GREATEST COVERAGE WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY) WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR THRU ~16Z. LOCALIZED
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/LIFR, BUT THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE (20%) AT ALL TAF SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS TO BE EAST OF KBIL. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BEGINNING AROUND 20Z, WITH IMPACTS MAINLY CLOSE TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. POTENTIAL TS TIMES
ARE LISTED BELOW:
KLVM 21-03Z
KBIL 00-05Z
KSHR 21-04Z
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 057/084 058/086 059/080 055/080 056/084 058/088
1/B 40/U 31/B 64/T 41/B 20/U 10/B
LVM 077 045/082 047/083 047/078 044/079 045/083 048/087
2/T 61/U 21/B 86/T 52/T 11/U 11/U
HDN 078 052/084 052/088 055/081 050/082 050/086 052/090
2/W 32/W 11/B 64/T 42/W 21/B 10/B
MLS 077 054/084 056/087 058/080 053/081 053/084 055/088
1/B 24/T 11/B 74/T 32/W 21/U 21/B
4BQ 077 056/083 058/087 060/081 055/080 055/084 057/088
1/B 24/T 21/B 64/T 33/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 077 049/082 052/087 054/079 049/079 049/083 052/087
0/B 14/T 31/B 66/T 43/W 31/U 11/U
SHR 073 049/080 050/083 052/078 048/077 048/082 050/086
7/T 42/T 11/B 45/T 43/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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