250
FXUS65 KBYZ 161908
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
108 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER FOR LAST HALF OF WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, PUSHING TO
THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
EARLIER OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED NOSE OF AN UPPER JET-LET STRETCHED ACROSS OUR CWA WILL
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
(FALLON,CARTER) LATER TODAY. MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE
MT/DAKOTA BORDER REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS SUGGEST A
RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. SPC HAS THE SE CORNER OF MT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
OUTLOOK WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. PWATS OVER AN INCH SUGGEST HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
STRONGER CELLS. IN THE MEANTIME, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES/MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NEARBY
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THIS EVENING. CAMS ARE INCONCLUSIVE HOW FAR
EAST THIS ACTIVITY MAY GET BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT RECENT EVENINGS
CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ROBUST ENOUGH TO AFFECT EVEN YELLOWSTONE
COUNTY. WE WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THERE FOR THE CENTRAL
ZONES PAST SUNSET.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PUSH THROUGH NE MT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO EAST
CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER JET ENERGY
ALOFT LOOKS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT OVER OUR
REGION FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE UPPER JET, WHICH IN TURN
DETERMINES PLACEMENT OF BETTER RAINFALL IN OUR CWA. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE
0.8-1.0 INCHES, WHICH SUGGESTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO
MONITORED, ESPECIALLY OVER OLD BURN SCARS.
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, ENSEMBLES INDICATE CONFIDENCE
IN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY WITH
A MUCH DIMINISHED CHANCE OF RAINFALL. BT
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
AROUND 06Z MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR AREAS NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
THREATS INCLUDE HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH AND WINDS GREATER THAN 50
KTS. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/082 060/078 057/084 059/089 061/090 064/090 063/088
11/B 33/T 30/U 00/U 11/B 32/W 42/W
LVM 046/081 050/077 046/082 049/088 053/089 055/087 052/084
42/T 43/T 40/U 00/U 12/W 34/T 53/T
HDN 055/086 056/082 052/087 054/091 057/093 061/094 061/091
11/B 23/T 30/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 32/W
MLS 058/084 058/081 056/087 058/091 059/091 063/090 065/091
11/B 42/T 30/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 21/B
4BQ 059/085 060/081 057/086 059/090 061/091 065/092 065/090
11/B 33/T 31/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 21/B
BHK 053/084 052/082 051/086 054/090 055/089 057/090 059/090
41/B 31/B 21/B 10/U 00/U 11/B 22/T
SHR 051/082 053/077 050/082 051/088 054/091 058/090 058/087
11/B 35/T 31/U 00/U 01/B 12/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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