194
FXUS65 KBYZ 260703
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
103 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AGAIN TODAY.
- LATE DAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THOUGH TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MEANS MOSTLY WEAK WINDS, WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW STEADY RAMP UP INTO FRIDAY WHERE A LOT OF THE CWA
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND POTENTIALLY LOW 100S AGAIN. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST / DOWNSLOPE THROUGH THE
WEEK KEEPING RH VALUES LOW, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES COMING LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, WE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE APEX OF THE FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE
IMPACTED YET ANOTHER VORT MAX THAT PUSHES OVER THE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ANOTHER SMALL FEATURE WILL PUSH
UP OUT OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN INTO SW MONTANA. THIS WILL GIVE
ALL OF OUR MOUNTAINS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS.
THURSDAY WILL COME WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SLIGHTLY MORE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PNW WILL
PUSH THROUGH ID AND WESTERN MT BEFORE QUICKLY WARPING BACK INTO
THE LARGER LOW OVER BC. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH THOUGH TO INITIATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MT. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK WITH THIS EVENT,
HOWEVER INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH DRY LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS OUT OF ANY STORM. IN FAR SE MONTANA THERE COULD BE
SOME MORE TRADITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IN AN AREA OF BETTER CAPE,
SHEAR, AND MOISTURE, BUT THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST CARTER CO.
MT.
THURSDAY MAY ALSO COME WITH SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA. RH VALUES
SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNINGLY LOW SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS DUE TO A WEAK THERMAL
LOW / BORAD-SCALE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN THE 25% ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEPING VALUES ABOVE 10%. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE TOO STRONG WITH MODELS SHOWING SUSTAINED VALUES IN
THE TEENS MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 20
MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND IN THE EVENING,
NEARLY ALL OF WHICH SHOULD COME WITH PRECIP. ALL THIS TO SAY,
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER BUT AS OF NOW I DO NOT EXPECT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THAT LOW OVER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
WILL BE PUSHED INLAND AND THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS SETUP LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ALSO BRING SOME WINDS DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIN AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE MODELED LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG AS OF NOW. AFTER THIS
WEEKEND'S LOW, THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PATTERN FAIRLY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WMR
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AGAIN MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. KLVM IS THE MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM 23Z TO
03Z.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/095 063/090 062/084 056/079 054/085 058/086
2/W 23/W 52/T 53/W 63/W 10/U 11/U
LVM 089 051/091 051/086 050/079 043/075 042/082 046/081
2/W 34/T 45/T 76/T 73/W 21/U 32/T
HDN 092 058/096 060/093 060/086 052/082 049/087 054/089
0/B 10/B 31/B 42/W 42/W 10/U 11/B
MLS 088 060/095 065/094 065/086 057/079 053/085 057/088
0/B 00/B 20/B 32/T 42/W 10/U 11/U
4BQ 088 060/093 065/093 064/087 058/081 054/087 059/089
0/B 00/B 10/B 32/W 42/W 11/U 12/W
BHK 085 051/092 061/094 061/088 053/082 048/085 052/088
0/U 00/B 21/B 33/T 33/T 21/U 12/T
SHR 087 054/093 058/090 057/083 051/079 047/085 052/086
2/B 20/B 42/T 35/T 22/W 11/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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