575
FXUS65 KBYZ 250702
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
102 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL KEEP SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AROUND AND INTRODUCE MODERATE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE FROM AROUND 3AM THROUGH
9AM. RRFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ONE MILE VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WHERE FOG DOES DEVELOP. THIS INCLUDES BAKER, EKALAKA, AND
ALZADA.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY AS A TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
PRETTY CLOSE TO THURSDAYS HIGHS, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. TROF AXIS SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
AND LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE DRY/BREEZY SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 DEGREES, COOLEST IN THE WEST.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO
KEEP SURFACE WIND SPEEDS LOW, DESPITE FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
SUNDAY BEGINS A SHIFT TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS CLIMB FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (2-3 SD ABOVE
NORMAL) AS A TROF DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
GRABS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SHOVES IT THIS DIRECTION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW LEVEL PLAINS
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED BY THE CLOUD COVER WITH
MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS BY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS RAMP UP IN POPS IS DUE TO THE WESTERN TROF SLIDING INTO THE
AREA AND PUSHING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MID DAY
MONDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER TROF
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD THIS
SYSTEM HOLD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
FORECAST AMOUNTS MAY GO HIGHER, AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
AROUND 11KFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, 10KFT BY MONDAY MORNING, AND 8KFT
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THIS MAY IMPACT THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
GENERALLY WEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BT/CHAMBERS
AVIATION
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1SM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA STATE LINE BETWEEN 09-15Z THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING KBHK. OTHERWISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS OVERNIGHT. BT/CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 052/070 048/064 048/064 047/070 049/069 047/067
0/B 00/U 01/E 32/W 10/U 10/B 00/U
LVM 083 045/071 042/067 042/066 039/069 041/069 040/069
0/U 00/B 11/E 53/W 10/U 11/B 10/U
HDN 085 048/072 045/067 046/065 043/071 046/070 043/069
0/B 00/U 01/B 43/W 10/U 10/U 00/U
MLS 081 055/070 048/068 050/066 046/070 049/069 047/066
0/B 00/U 01/E 43/W 10/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 079 055/070 049/072 052/064 047/069 050/069 048/067
0/B 00/U 01/B 64/W 21/U 10/U 10/B
BHK 076 052/071 045/069 049/066 043/069 046/068 044/066
0/N 00/U 11/B 75/W 11/U 10/U 10/U
SHR 081 048/074 043/069 045/062 041/068 043/068 041/069
0/B 00/U 01/B 37/T 41/U 11/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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