234
FXUS65 KBYZ 120155
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
755 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY,
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, ACCUMULATING WET
SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AND RAIN/WET SNOW FOR CENTRAL
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE EAST WILL SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
- GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
- WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS.
- GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER & DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING,
AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. BILLINGS AIRPORT HAS FALLEN TO 34F AND IS REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW, AND WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE OVER
BULL MOUNTAIN DIVIDE. COOP STATION NEAR MELVILLE CHECKED IN WITH
9" OF SNOW A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. ALL HIGHLIGHTS SEEM TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BUT NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH IN
WY FLOW IS VEERING TO THE SW W/ COLD ADVECTION SURGING INTO
SOUTHWEST WY. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, AND LINGER IN THE NORTH/EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. PTYPE
WILL REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST. TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER AND SOME
SNOWY/SLUSHY ROADS OVER THE WEST MAY TURN ICY. SOME FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT FROM NORTHERN STILLWATER TO THE BULL MTNS. ALSO ADJUSTED
POPS/WX PER CURRENT TRENDS.
JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS BRINGING COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS WITH THE HELP OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
RACHEL. MODERATE FORCING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SNOW FOR EAST FACING MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING
HIGHER HILLS. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS THEY
STAND AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
LOW LEVELS BRINGING SNOW AND A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES FOR MORE OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT AND LESS
THAN A HALF AN INCH IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE BILLINGS AREA. AS
FAR AS LIQUID PRECIPITATION GOES, THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH
REMAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AT ABOUT 40-80%, WITH ABOUT A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY MONDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE REGION BY END OF
MORNING. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY WITH WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN SHERIDAN CO, WY AND SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY. HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD, THE SAME LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS WY, BRINGING SMALL TO
MODERATE PRECIP CHANCES TO SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND
CLUSTERS SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RIDGING, ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S. TS
AVIATION
A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, WITH RAIN OVER THE EAST.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON FOR WESTERN AREAS, AND
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION DECREASES. NORTH TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT KSHR MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TONIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/045 032/052 032/058 039/059 034/064 043/071 046/070
+2/B 01/B 10/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 023/042 024/049 023/053 028/058 027/066 034/071 036/070
+1/E 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 033/047 031/053 031/059 035/060 030/066 032/074 039/072
+2/R 11/B 11/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 037/046 033/052 033/057 039/057 032/061 037/071 044/069
+6/R 00/B 00/B 20/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 041/048 035/052 036/057 041/058 033/062 040/073 046/071
82/R 32/R 11/B 31/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 033/048 029/053 029/059 034/059 028/060 033/071 041/070
+8/R 11/B 00/B 21/N 10/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 034/046 029/052 031/057 035/058 028/065 034/074 039/072
91/N 43/R 33/R 31/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 29-34-40-42-65-66-141-228.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 63-67-68-172.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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