751
FXUS61 KCAR 151149
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
WILL PULL AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY, THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH, TO THE MID
TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET MONDAY WITH SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON THE CWA. UPR VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER IL WILL
LIKELY PASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE WX OTHER
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER SRN ZONES.
SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH SRLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE DRAWING IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW
FREEZING TO THE NORTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE BANGOR
REGION AND DOWNEAST WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FRZG AT THE
START OF THE PRECIP. EXPECT THAT WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BEGIN
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
UP INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EVENT SHOULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. GIVEN THE BIAS OF NBM TEMPS BEING TOO WARM DURING WINTER
EVENTS HAVE FOLLOWED CONSRAW GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE
NAM SFC TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE NON- DIURNAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
GLAZE OF ICE EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH AND WEST OF A DOVER-FOXCROFT
TO HOULTON LINE, MOST OF IT OCCURRING FROM MIDNIGHT THRU
DAYBREAK.
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 60KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF BTWN 15-20MPH LOOK TO FREQUENTLY
GUST TO NEAR 35MPH BETWEEN 06-15Z. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
THE EVENT LAST WEEK BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO
THE WEAKENED INFRASTRUCTURE FROM THE EVENT LESS THAN ONE WEEK AGO.
TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ABOVE FRZG MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH
STEADY RAIN FALLING DURING THE DAY. OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK QUICKLY AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACRS THE NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AM NOT EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CAA BEHIND FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND HEAD
NORTHEAST FROM THERE AS UPR LVL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. H3
SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SFC LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TO AS FAR NORTH AS THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. TRACK
ULTIMATELY WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND ANY SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. AS OF
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS, ARE SHOWING
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS COLD
AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA ON NORTHERLY FLOW. 00Z GFS AND CMC
INDICATE SFC HIGH OVER SRN QUEBEC WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 00Z EC PARKING RIDGE RIGHT
OVERHEAD. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT WILD ABOUT THIS IDEA SO HAVE KEPT MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTH AND INTO THE LWR TEENS FOR DOWNEAST.
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SFC HIGH WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS UPON US. EURO IS QUICKEST MOVING THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS/CMC
KEEP IT OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
PROLONGED SNOW EVENT MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WANT A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY...VFR. S 5KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OVER DOWNEAST
TERMINALS AND MIXED PRECIP FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. S 5-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MVFR OVER NRN TERMINALS LATE. S 5-15KTS AND GUSTY.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
ACROSS THE NORTH. WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR, LOWER TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. LIGHT S WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING W 5-10KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 5FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS APPROACH GALE
FORCE TUESDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BUSTER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BUSTER
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