606  
FXUS61 KCAR 151348  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
848 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS THE  
MARITIMES MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC  
WILL PULL AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
8:48 AM UPDATE...THE SKY IS CLEAR AND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MORNING TEMPERATURES.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY, THEN MOSTLY  
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH  
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH, TO THE MID  
TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG  
THE DOWNEAST COAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET MONDAY WITH SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS  
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON THE CWA. UPR VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER IL WILL  
LIKELY PASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE WX OTHER  
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER SRN ZONES.  
 
SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH SRLY  
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE DRAWING IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT AS  
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW  
FREEZING TO THE NORTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE BANGOR  
REGION AND DOWNEAST WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FRZG AT THE  
START OF THE PRECIP. EXPECT THAT WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL BEGIN  
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN  
ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS  
UP INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP AT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE EVENT SHOULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING  
RAIN. GIVEN THE BIAS OF NBM TEMPS BEING TOO WARM DURING WINTER  
EVENTS HAVE FOLLOWED CONSRAW GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE  
NAM SFC TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE NON- DIURNAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH A  
GLAZE OF ICE EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH AND WEST OF A DOVER-FOXCROFT  
TO HOULTON LINE, MOST OF IT OCCURRING FROM MIDNIGHT THRU  
DAYBREAK.  
 
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 60KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF BTWN 15-20MPH LOOK TO FREQUENTLY  
GUST TO NEAR 35MPH BETWEEN 06-15Z. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS  
THE EVENT LAST WEEK BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE POWER OUTAGES DUE TO  
THE WEAKENED INFRASTRUCTURE FROM THE EVENT LESS THAN ONE WEEK AGO.  
 
TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ABOVE FRZG MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH  
STEADY RAIN FALLING DURING THE DAY. OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES INTO NEW  
BRUNSWICK QUICKLY AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID-LATE  
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACRS THE NORTH AND  
AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.  
 
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND WITH  
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AM NOT EXPECTING BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY  
WITH VERY LITTLE CAA BEHIND FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BY 12Z  
WEDNESDAY SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND HEAD  
NORTHEAST FROM THERE AS UPR LVL TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. H3  
SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SFC LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF  
NOVA SCOTIA TO AS FAR NORTH AS THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. TRACK  
ULTIMATELY WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND ANY SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. AS OF  
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS, ARE SHOWING  
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AS COLD  
AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA ON NORTHERLY FLOW. 00Z GFS AND CMC  
INDICATE SFC HIGH OVER SRN QUEBEC WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN  
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 00Z EC PARKING RIDGE RIGHT  
OVERHEAD. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE  
AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK. HOWEVER,  
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT WILD ABOUT THIS IDEA SO HAVE KEPT MIN TEMPS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTH AND INTO THE LWR TEENS FOR DOWNEAST.  
 
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SFC HIGH WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY  
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS UPON US. EURO IS QUICKEST MOVING THE NEXT LOW  
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS/CMC  
KEEP IT OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A  
PROLONGED SNOW EVENT MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO WANT A WHITE  
CHRISTMAS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10  
KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH  
WINDS TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
MONDAY...VFR. S 5KTS.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OVER DOWNEAST  
TERMINALS AND MIXED PRECIP FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. S 5-15KTS  
WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE.  
 
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND MVFR OVER NRN TERMINALS LATE. S 5-15KTS AND GUSTY.  
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE  
ACROSS THE NORTH. WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR, LOWER TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW  
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. LIGHT S WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
BECOMING W 5-10KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS  
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 5FT OVER THE OUTER  
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS APPROACH GALE  
FORCE TUESDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/NORCROSS  
SHORT TERM...BUSTER  
LONG TERM...BUSTER  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS/BUSTER  
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS/BUSTER  
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