427
FXUS61 KCAR 160511
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY...CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1210 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE WORKING INTO CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A SNOWPACK EXISTS
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 0 AND GIVEN THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE DROPPED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR MOONLIT NIGHT WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL COOL QUICKLY
UNDER THE CLEAR CALM SKY TONIGHT WITH VALLEYS LIKELY BECOMING
MUCH COOLER THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO BEGIN. NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SUNSHINE WHILE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH AND NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY NIGHT, AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE,
BRINGING WARM OVERRUNNING OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS AND ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT A LOT OF QPF IS EXPECTED BEFORE
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING, SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLIPPERY
TUESDAY MORNING, IMPACTS TO TREES AND POWER LINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET, PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN
AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE INFLUX OF PRECIP A LITTLE BIT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
SINCE DRY AIR WITH THE RETREATING HIGH MAY EVAPORATE THE FIRST
PRECIP MOVING IN. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LIKE THE LAST EVENT.
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM NBM TO REFLECT THE LLJ MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, SO BY TUESDAY
EVENING, THE PRECIP WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY
COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING A QUICK BREAK IN THE WEATHER AND A
SLIGHT COOLING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EFFECTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL PULL COLD AIR IN
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO RETURN FOR
MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OF COURSE,
P-TYPE WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, SO IF IT
MOVES FURTHER INLAND, WE MAY SEE MORE WINTRY MIX FURTHER
NORTHWARD. IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, P-TYPE MAY BE SNOW
ALL THE WAY TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER, THAT WOULD ALSO
MOVE THE HIGHEST QPF OFFSHORE, AND LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. REGARDLESS THIS IS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM,
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALLS (MORE THAN 4 INCHES) IS FAIRLY LOW (APPROX 15%
CHANCE).
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH A COLDER
DOME OF AIR SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE POTENTIAL SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS DEPENDS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE, LIMITING SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW POSSIBLE SNOW
MOVING OVER THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE LESS POSITIVE WITH
VERY FEW CURRENTLY SHOWING A WEEKEND SNOW EVENT. OVERALL, THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOKS MORE PROMISING THAN IT
HAS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO, BUT GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND IS LOW.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR
CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OVER DOWNEAST
TERMINALS AND MIXED PRECIP FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. POSSIBLE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TERMINALS.
S 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MVFR OVER NRN TERMINALS LATE. S 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TRANSITIONING TO MVFR WEDS EVENING.
WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. WINDS LIGHT S WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING W 5-10KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR LATE IN -SN.
LIGHT WINDS WITH POSSIBLE LLWS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: GALES LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING, DECREASING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KTS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FEET ON TUESDAY, THEN SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 5 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BUSTER/LF
MARINE...BLOOMER/BUSTER/LF
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