201
FXUS61 KCAR 161151
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
651 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
650 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ACRS WRN
ZONES SO UPDATED FCST TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAPTURED THIS WITH
RAP BEING MOST REALISTIC.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS
OF CIRRUS SHIELD INTO CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT 00Z
RAOBS OUT OF CAR AND GYX EXPLAINS WHY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS
EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 500MB. VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND IS SPREADING LOWER CLOUDS INTO SRN MAINE AND OVER
DOWNEAST. PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
VERY FAINT ECHOES UP INTO NRN VT IN LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
PRESENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS VORT MAX DROPS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE WEST AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH MOSUNNY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST.
AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COOLER AND DRIER SFC TEMPS FROM A GREENVILLE
TO CARIBOU CORRIDOR WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, TEMPS AND DWPTS
SHOULD RISE JUST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. HAVE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PCPN ACRS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO GET ANOTHER LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOR ICING.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL JET MOVES INTO WRN ZONES AFTER 06Z WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND 12Z. VERY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY MINIMIZE GUSTS BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A GUST TO 35
MPH AS THE JET PUSHES EAST. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AND THE
PREVIOUS EVENT IS THE ABSENCE OF A QLCS MOVING THRU TO HELP MIX
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SFC.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH JUST PLAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A DECENT
SOUTH BREEZE OVER THE AREA. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST
AND RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH MOST AREAS DRY
OUTSIDE A FEW HIT AND MISS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S DOWNEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SW BREEZE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 30
MPH. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY S/E OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
REMAINING BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY FAIRLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EARLY TUESDAY SYSTEM, SO STILL LOOKING FAIRLY MILD
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. CAN'T RULE OUT A
COUPLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE N/NW, BUT
GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
TRANQUIL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACK
NE SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO
THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK YET. GENERAL TREND IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. A MORE SHARPLY
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WOULD LEAD TO A FURTHER
NORTH/STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHICH COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION,
WHILE A FLATTER TROUGH WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
LOW TRACK WITH LESS PRECIP. EVEN WITH A STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION, THIS IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG SYSTEM. ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, BUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL OVER 6-8 INCHES IS VERY UNLIKELY. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT LESS THAN 2 INCHES WILL FALL IF THE WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION PANS OUT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF
BANGOR, WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN PLAY FROM BANGOR TO THE COAST.
WINDS NOT A CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM, AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS WILL
BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM, WITH ONLY ABOUT 6-9 HOURS' WORTH
OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY ONE SPOT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY WITH A DECENT NW WIND. COULD
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LEFT MAINLY IN THE NORTH. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WITH A GOOD DOSE OF ARCTIC AIR, AND THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT CAN TAP INTO ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN TIME TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW CLOSE
ENOUGH TO US TO GIVE US SNOW, OR IF THIS WILL OCCUR TO OUR EAST
AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT IN THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS KEEP US FAIRLY DRY, BUT A SIGNIFICANT
MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO A NORLUN
INVERTED TROUGH-TYPE EVENT. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. MOST LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW. THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD AT LEAST GET INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH
PROBABLY THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCT030 CLOUDS AT NRN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING WITH IFR TOWARD END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS
MOVES IN AFTER 08Z AT FL020.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MVFR OVER NRN TERMINALS LATE. S 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-30KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TRANSITIONING TO MVFR WEDS EVENING.
WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. WINDS LIGHT S WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING W 10-15KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH GALE FORCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL APPROACH 7FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR S WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FEET ON TUESDAY, THEN SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 5 FEET...THEN BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FEET THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BUSTER/FOISY
MARINE...BUSTER/FOISY
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