123
FXUS61 KCAR 162311
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
6:11 PM UPDATE: AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOWER CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
BRIEFLY MOVE OUT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MID
LEVEL AND LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. IF THE LOWER
CLOUDS DO NOT THIN OUT FOR A TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE IF THE CLOUDS CAN
THIN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT
MORE. IF NOT, FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT. DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION, MOST FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR IN HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 TO 1500 FT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AS STEADY PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC CAD SITUATION LIKE LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS STEADIER PRECIP STARTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES. NOW EXPECT ICE ACCRETION OF ONE TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FURTHERMORE, THE
COLD GROUND SURFACES FROM RECENT DAYS ARE LIABLE TO PRODUCE ICY
ROAD SURFACES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIP COMMENCES. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY REACH A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 80 KT
AT 850MB. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AND A FEW READINGS AROUND 50F IN THE BANGOR AREA AND HANCOCK
COUNTY. WHILE A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE MORNING, THE INVERSION
BREAKS LATER IN THE MORNING AND STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH. ON THE COAST, 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE NE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUSION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EARLY NIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE VORT MAX SHOULD EXIT THE REGION, ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL PUSH THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROF TOWARDS THE REGION.
AS THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND, MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. BY
THE EVENING, MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF ON MAINE. THE ISSUE WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE TRACK OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE GFS, THE LOW SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST CAUSING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND PUSH WARMER AIR MUCH FURTHER NORTH. IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS
THE EURO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAIR OFF OVER THE WATERS,
CAUSING SNOW TO REACH TO THE COAST WITH MUCH LOW AMOUNTS. AS OF
THIS UPDATE, THE CMC SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 2 POSSIBLE
TRACKS, WITH COLD AIR IN THE NORTH AND WARM AIR IN THE SOUTH.
DECIDED TO GO WITH A MORE MIDDLE TRACK AND KEPT THE SOUTH WARMER
AND THE NORTH COLD. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. BY
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE MARITIMES WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY WITH A DECENT NW WIND. COULD
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LEFT MAINLY IN THE NORTH. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WITH A GOOD DOSE OF ARCTIC AIR, AND THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT CAN TAP INTO ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN TIME TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW CLOSE
ENOUGH TO US TO GIVE US SNOW, OR IF THIS WILL OCCUR TO OUR EAST
AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT IN THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER WHICH RESULTS IN
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CMC PRODUCES A STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH A GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW.
THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD AT LEAST GET INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH PROBABLY THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR DURING THE
NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR TO LIFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY
CAUSE WILL BE CIGS, BUT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PRESENT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE. LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR...AND POSSIBLE VFR FOR BGR AND BHB.
SE WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL SHIFT SW 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR WEDS EVENING. WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. WINDS LIGHT S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING W 10-15KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 09Z TO 18Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TOWARDS 7 TO 10 FEET. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE BELOW SCA LEVELS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH/MELANSON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/LAFLASH
MARINE...CB/MCW/LAFLASH
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