948
FXUS61 KCAR 170214
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
9:14 PM UPDATE: AN OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE CWA,
BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
FALLING IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH, EITHER IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FA. IN BANGOR AND ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN, BUT AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HAVE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING BY LATE MORNING. THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED OUT IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, BUT WHERE IT HAS REMAINED
CLOUDY TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO 30F. EXPECT THAT WHERE IT IS
CLEAR THAT THE TEMPERATURE RISES AS CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA, AND ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES START TO RISE VERY
LATE TONIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT. DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION, MOST FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR IN HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 TO 1500 FT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AS STEADY PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC CAD SITUATION LIKE LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS STEADIER PRECIP STARTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES. NOW EXPECT ICE ACCRETION OF ONE TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FURTHERMORE, THE
COLD GROUND SURFACES FROM RECENT DAYS ARE LIABLE TO PRODUCE ICY
ROAD SURFACES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIP COMMENCES. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY REACH A MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 80 KT
AT 850MB. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AND A FEW READINGS AROUND 50F IN THE BANGOR AREA AND HANCOCK
COUNTY. WHILE A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE MORNING, THE INVERSION
BREAKS LATER IN THE MORNING AND STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH. ON THE COAST, 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE NE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUSION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EARLY NIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE VORT MAX SHOULD EXIT THE REGION, ALLOWING
FOR A BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL PUSH THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROF TOWARDS THE REGION.
AS THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND, MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. BY
THE EVENING, MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF ON MAINE. THE ISSUE WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE TRACK OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE GFS, THE LOW SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST CAUSING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND PUSH WARMER AIR MUCH FURTHER NORTH. IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS
THE EURO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAIR OFF OVER THE WATERS,
CAUSING SNOW TO REACH TO THE COAST WITH MUCH LOW AMOUNTS. AS OF
THIS UPDATE, THE CMC SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 2 POSSIBLE
TRACKS, WITH COLD AIR IN THE NORTH AND WARM AIR IN THE SOUTH.
DECIDED TO GO WITH A MORE MIDDLE TRACK AND KEPT THE SOUTH WARMER
AND THE NORTH COLD. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. BY
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE MARITIMES WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY WITH A DECENT NW WIND. COULD
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LEFT MAINLY IN THE NORTH. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WITH A GOOD DOSE OF ARCTIC AIR, AND THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT CAN TAP INTO ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN TIME TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW CLOSE
ENOUGH TO US TO GIVE US SNOW, OR IF THIS WILL OCCUR TO OUR EAST
AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT IN THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER WHICH RESULTS IN
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE THE CMC PRODUCES A STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH A GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW.
THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD AT LEAST GET INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH PROBABLY THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TO MVFR THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR
DURING THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR TO LIFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY CAUSE WILL BE CIGS, BUT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
PRESENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE.
LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR NORTH AND VFR FOR
KBGR AND KBHB. SE WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT SW 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR WEDS EVENING. WSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST. WINDS LIGHT S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING W 10-15KTS AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 09Z TO 18Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TOWARDS 7 TO 10 FEET. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE BELOW SCA LEVELS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH/MELANSON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/LAFLASH
MARINE...CB/MCW/LAFLASH
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