819
FXUS61 KCAR 170915
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
415 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT DROPPING INTO
UPSTATE NY AS OF 08Z. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
KICKED SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AND HAVE
CANCELED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS OR BRIDGES
FOR THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST TO NEAR 35 MPH AND WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UPON
FROPA.
WARM ADVECTION SURGING INTO THE AREA ON SRLY FLOW HAS ALREADY
BROUGHT BGR AND THE COAST UP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND EXPECT THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S. NRN ZONES SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER
MOST AREAS.
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH MAJORITY OF RAIN
MOVING INTO NB AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.25-0.35 INCHES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 0.50" MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST.
ANY LINGERING PCPN TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE OVER FAR WRN ZONES IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST AS STRATOCU MOVES IN WITH REMAINDER OF REGION
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 30F TONIGHT OVER ALL
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER MILD DAY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. CLOUDS THICKENING AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOULD STAY DRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A QUICK-MOVING, FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WEST-TO-EAST FLOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE FROM THE
COAST TO ABOUT 100 MILES OFFSHORE, THOUGH A DECENT SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THE LOW AND PASS THROUGH THE WHOLE
STATE, SO PRECIPITATION WON'T BE JUST CONFINED TO NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW. MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, THE CEILING OF THIS EVENT IS
NOT THAT HIGH, WITH WARNING-LEVEL SNOW EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY, THERE WILL BE A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOW AROUND 4 INCHES, WITH LESS TO THE NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR
DUE TO LIGHTER PRECIPITATION, AND LESS TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF
TEMPERATURES BEING A BIT TOO WARM WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX, OR JUST
RAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST SHOT OF GETTING 4 INCHES OR A LITTLE
MORE IS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT GREENVILLE
EAST TO HOULTON, WHERE THERE'S ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE
THAN 4 INCHES. MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. ROUGH GUESS IS
THAT THIS SETS UP SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BANGOR REGION, WITH THE
POSITION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INTENSITY
OF PRECIPITATION. ODDS FAVOR ALL RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EVEN WHERE IT'S COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY WARM EVENT, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WHILE THE SNOW IS
FALLING.
THURSDAY...
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST FOR THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH JUST SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. AIR
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM REALLY ISN'T ANY COOLER, AND
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S DOWNEAST. FAIRLY BREEZY ON THURSDAY FROM THE NW AND RAISED
NBM WINDS SOME, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
DECENT COLD ADVECTION FINALLY KICKS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH AND
IN THE TEENS DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE LAST, AND HAS A GREATER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO WORK OVER THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKELY
THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH, AND TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA, STRENGTHENING INTO A MODERATELY STRONG
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. QUESTION IS DOES IT MISS
US TO THE EAST, WITH US STAYING IN THE COLD AIR, OR DOES IT
TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT US WITH A GOOD SNOWSTORM. THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES MISS US TO THE EAST, WITH A GOOD
SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA SUCH AS EASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK, PEI, AND NOVA SCOTIA. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...
LIKELY DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND 0. HOW COLD IT IS WILL
DEPEND ON IF WE GET ANY SNOW FROM THE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. HEADING TOWARD TUESDAY AND THEN INTO
CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO ONE WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMER THAN AVERAGE, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS TO SEE LOW MVFR/IFR EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE AT FVE, CAR AND PQI THROUGH 11Z.
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -FZRA GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE
TEMPS. TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS TO SEE LOW MVFR/IFR AS WELL EARLY BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND -RA EXPECTED
THIS MORNING.
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR AROUND THE END
OF THE DAY. W/SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT
SNOW NORTH AND AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWNEAST, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
DOWNEAST THURSDAY MORNING, AND MVFR OR VFR NORTH. WINDS
VARIABLE AND LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING W/NW 10-15KTS AND
GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW, BUT VFR APPEARS MORE LIKELY. NW WINDS 10-15
KTS AND GUSTY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE
5FT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCA LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WITH WINDS FROM THE W/NW AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. NEXT
LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT GALES AS WELL.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...FOISY/BUSTER
MARINE...FOISY/BUSTER
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