188
FXUS61 KCAR 181744
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY, TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1244 PM UPDATE... AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR FORECAST AREA, SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD OVER FROM WEST TO
EAST. RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOME SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER NOW, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
VARIABLE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING
SYSTEM BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY BENIGN
WX EXPECTED TDA WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
NOWHERE NEAR WHERE THEY WERE YDA. WEST WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AS SFC LOW APPROACHES FM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SURFACE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTH TODAY. SFC LOW AS OF 08Z IS LOCATED OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF
MO WITH WMFNT DRAPED INTO THE TN VLY. LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
TO RFQ OF UPR LEVEL JET STREAK AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS JET
LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING LOW INTERACTS
WITH BOUNDARY OVER QUEBEC.
SFC LOW CROSSES THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING WITH IT'S TRACK
LOOKING TO SCRAPE SRN NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVIER QPF LOOKS TO BE LOCATED
OVER DOWNEAST WHERE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW EARLY ON. BY THE
TIME SYSTEM PULLS EAST INTO NS, QPF WILL BECOME LIGHT SO THAT ONLY
AND INCH OR TWO FALLS OVER DOWNEAST WITH 1-3" FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BANGOR REGION STARTS AS
RAIN BEFORE MIXING WITH SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. SYSTEM IS A QUICK-MOVER WITH POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND BY THU MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF
CWA.
CURRENT FCST HAS A BAND OF 3-4" FROM A GREENVILLE TO MARS HILL LINE
THIS EVENING THRU THURSDAY MORNING. CAN SEE THIS POSSIBLY BEING TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF AFOREMENTIONED SFC BNDRY OVER QUEBEC SINKS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO NRN AREAS TONIGHT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING CLEARING
SOUTH AND PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTH. THE DAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE
COAST, WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE THE INFUSION OF
COLDER AIR CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
LOW 20S NORTH AND MID 30S BY THE COAST AT THE END OF THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS DOWNEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS TO OUR
NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY. OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO A LARGE STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT AND TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WILL CARRY MOST OF IT'S PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY BE BIG ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP ACROSS EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AND INTO THE EASTERN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. FOR US, THIS
WILL BRING A COLD AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTH TOWARD LABRADOR. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OVER THE
AREA WILL BRING COLD AND DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY PIVOTING A
WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A CLOUDY DAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS AND EARLY TO MID EVENING
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CROSS MOST NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS,
KEEPING SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THOUGH VIS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE EARLY THURS MORNING AS THE SNOW EXITS THE AREA,
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE.
BGR LIKELY TO RECEIVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, TRANSITIONING TO
MORE SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BHB SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN THOUGH
BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ANY
REDUCTION IN VIS DUE TO RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE EARLY THURS MORNING, BUT CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT,
SHIFTING W TO NW THURS MORNING AND INCREASING 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N WIND
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR, TO POSSIBLY MVFR AT TIMES SOUTH. N WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR, TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES NORTH. BRISK N TO NW WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR. GUSTY NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5FT UNTIL DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
BRISK NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. WINDS MAY NEAR GALE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 6 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE OFFSHORE STORM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/BLOOMER
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/BLOOMER
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