912
FXUS61 KCAR 190538
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTHWARDS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY, TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT
NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1240 AM UPDATE...
AS OF MIDNIGHT, WEBCAMS AND OBS INDICATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LINCOLN AND OLD TOWN. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO
REFLECT A SLOWER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE BANGOR REGION AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT, WITH COASTAL AREAS NOT EXPECTING
TO SEE ANY SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT TEMPS ACRS THE AREA AND PAST FEW HOURS
WORTH OF OBS, THE TEMP IN BANGOR WILL LIKELY NEED TO DROP TO 34
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS, DWPTS AND WX
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA. AS OF MIDNIGHT, THE OFFICE HAS PICKED UP 0.4" OF SNOW WITH
A LIQUID AMOUNT OF 0.08" SO HAVE LOWERED SLR EVEN FURTHER. NO
OTHER CHGS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER TODAY,
MAY AID IN PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN UP THROUGH
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING INTO SNOW
FURTHER NORTH. AS THE EVENT PERSISTS AND NIGHT FALLS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL TOWARDS AND BELOW FREEZING,
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
REGION, WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN ALL RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT MAY HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY
WET SNOW, AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
ADVECT COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
WILL BECOME MUCH FLUFFIER IN CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BEHIND THE STORM AS IT
QUICKLY PUSHES OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, GUSTY NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH, FUELED BY MOISTURE OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THERE WILL
BE CLEARING EARLY ON, BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE IN AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES. STILL, EXPECTING AT LEAST
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED FRESH SNOW COVER
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH OR
EVEN DROP BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE,
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, WITH LOWER 20S RIGHT AT
THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY, WITH MUCH COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH, WITH 20S MOST OTHER PLACES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PASS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINE. THUS, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS LARGE ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE TOWARDS THE NEW BRUNSWICK
BORDER. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN MAINE,
BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THUS, ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL COULD BLOW
AND DRIFT. ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY END BY LATER SATURDAY, BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AT THE COAST AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COLD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINING SOME SNOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLES, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VLIFR OVER NRN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN SNOW. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR OTHER AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED
AROUND 18Z.
BGR SHOULD SEE A COMBO OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY 10Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER THIS TIME WITH VFR BY 14Z THIS
MORNING. BHB TO SEE LIFR IN LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 11Z BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 13Z THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N WIND
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR, TO POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR AT TIMES SOUTH WITH LIGHT
SNOW. N WIND 5-15 KTS.
SATURDAY...MVFR, TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES WITH LIGHT SNOW. N-NW
WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-30 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-
25 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING
UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE WATER. BEHIND THE STORM,
WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY EVENING, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS BUILD BACK ABOVE SCA LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE ON AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ENDS
SATURDAY EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/CLARK
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/CLARK
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