949
FXUS61 KCAR 191737
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:35 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE
KATAHDIN REGION EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PENOBSCOT, SOUTHEASTERN
AROOSTOOK, AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 320 AND 340 DEGREES. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 TROF MOVING THRU QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN AND ERN
ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST ARE STILL REPORTING RAIN AND WILL LIKELY END AS
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK.
COLD AIR MOVING IN AS LOW DEPARTS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPS TO
THE NORTH WITH DOWNEAST ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPR 30S BEFORE
BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DOWNWIND OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
AND WITH NW FLOW ALIGNED BLO 850MB AROUND 300 DEGREES, EXPECT
THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z CONTINUING UNTIL
AROUND 00Z. THIS BAND, KNOWN LOCALLY AS A LAURENTIAN PLUME, MAY
BRING AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
NEAR CLAYTON LAKE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CALAIS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND INVERSION LOWERS.
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE CWA
THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES INITIALLY WITH CALM WINDS MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO OVER THE FAR NWRN CORNER OF THE STATE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MIN TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A COLD
AND DRY DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS LOW MAY APPROACH THE
DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
INTENSIFY BUT TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AND
SNOW LIKELY ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. A NORTH WIND WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP TOWARD EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA
WILL DIG INTO OUR EASTERN TROUGH, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER
THE EAST. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM AS
IT LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN MARITIMES. SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
MAY REACH 2 OR 3 INCHES IN EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY CLOSER TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO LABRADOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING
PARTIAL CLEARING AND A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN CRESTING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS COULD
DROP TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THEN BEGIN DROPPING TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY BRINGING A SUNNY, COLD AND DRY DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS, MOSTLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND
THE SOUTH PARTLY TO PERHAPS MOSTLY CLOUDY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 19-21Z WITH LOWER
STRATUS AND VCSH. THEN TRENDING TO VFR AND REMAINING THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT. BGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
NW WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR. INCREASING N WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR AT TIMES. BRISK N WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND, POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING LIGHT S.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: NW WINDS GUSTING TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET OVER
ALL WATERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
A SCA WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR N
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 35 KT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH AND
EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS MAY REACH 6
FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...BUSTER/CLARK/BLOOMER
MARINE...BUSTER/CLARK/BLOOMER
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