391
FXUS61 KCAR 201730
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1230 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH ACROSS LABRADOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:30 PM UPDATE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK.
SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TODAY. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER, WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH LATEST
TRENDS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COASTAL STORM THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
OVER NERN PARTS OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THOSE EXTENDING FROM A
CLAYTON LAKE TO NEAR HOULTON LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEING
OVERSPREAD BY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF UPR TROF
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CLIPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO
WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
CWA THRU MID-MORNING BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE MARITIMES.
WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY
HEAD NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE CLIPPER-SYSTEM TRANSFERS IT'S
ENERGY OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, WEAK SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT RULE OUT SFC BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM,
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COLDER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH CLASHING WITH WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE HEADING UP FM THE SOUTH.
BY 00Z SAT, DEEPENING NOR'EASTER LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND HEADING NORTHEAST FROM THERE. DETERMINISTIC RUNS,
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LOW HEADING TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE NEAR EASTPORT AND FAR ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHERE AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH 4-6 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SFC LOW CAN
HOOK BACK TO THE WEST WILL DETERMINE IF A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY
BE NEED FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IN CWA TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THE NOR'EASTER
MOVING INTO CANADA. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AND INCH OR TWO ALONG THE NB BORDER ENOUGH TO FRESHEN UP
THE EXISTING SNOW PACK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST SATURDAY MORNING
TRACKING FROM A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON UP TOWARD EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. A BIT
OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA, COMBINED
WITH SOME LIFT FROM A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE
MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, TO PERHAPS 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN MARITIMES. A BRISK NORTH WIND
COMBINED WITH A DRY LIGHT SNOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FROM ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES NORTH TOWARD
LABRADOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC. ANY LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY AND COLD DAY ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEYS MAY DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE MAY BECOME CALM IN SOME AREAS LATE AT NIGHT AS THE AIR
DECOUPLES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING A
MOSTLY SUNNY, TRANQUIL AND COLD DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO THE LOW 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT, OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARD A SMALL
CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIFT A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT ALL THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WITH THE ECMWF SLIDING ONLY A WEAK
REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER OUR AREA INTO TUESDAY.
THE CLIPPER LOW OR WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE AWAY TO THE EAST,
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING A PARTLY SUNNY, DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD DAY ON CHRISTMAS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT FVE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS
MAINLY HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR/IFR BY LATE TONIGHT WITH -SN. NORTH
WINDS BECOME EAST- NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
GUSTY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR, BECOMING MVFR SOUTH LATE. GUSTY N WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WIND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND, POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM LATE.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW TO W WIND BECOMING S.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH. S WIND
BECOMING E.
TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. N WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING AND GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS WITH A SCA FOR THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET
OVER ALL WATERS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM:
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND AN
SCA FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY FOR STRONG N WIND
AROUND A LARGE LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST. WINDS WILL DROP TO
SCA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE BELOW SCA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL REACH UP
TO 7 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...BUSTER/CLARK/BLOOMER
MARINE...BUSTER/CLARK/BLOOMER
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