988
FXUS61 KCAR 202354
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN NORTH ACROSS
LABRADOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
654 PM UPDATE: CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS RETURNS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS SEEN ON
TONIGHT'S 00Z SOUNDING, THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN VIRGA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST
OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND
PULL SNOW INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN HIGHER FORECAST TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BASED ON FORECAST QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF
15-20:1, EXPECTING 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW THERE. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF JONESPORT, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WASHINGTON COUNTY AND ALL OF HANCOCK
COUNTY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA,
WITH 7 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND ROUTE 1. SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, BUT NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS ON
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SPOTS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. WITH WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 MPH ON SATURDAY, PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
20S, WITH SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH WOODS REMAINING IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE MARITIMES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS THE LONG WAVE 500MB TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
QUEBEC BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY AM WILL FEATURE INCREASING
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 0-5F RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTH, UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
9-15F ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON
THE STRONGER SIDE SAT NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY SO NW WINDS
10-20MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30MPH POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
OF -15 TO -10F TO START THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CANNOT
RULE OUT -20F READINGS AROUND MOOSEHEAD AND INTO N. SOMERSET.
THEN LOOKING AT -10F TO 0F ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO
DOWNEAST COAST.
DURING THE DAY EXPECTING HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 10-15F
RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD. THEN 15-18F FOR
BANGOR REGION TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS STILL GUSTY 10-20MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO BUT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WHEREVER WINDS ARE GUSTY ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WILL FEATURE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING
SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELING WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF BUT REMAINING POSITIVE AXIS MIGHT BE ABLE TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS SINCE THAT IS
A TYPICAL TRAVEL DAY FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND COULD SEE A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS START THE MORNING AROUND ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ALONG THE COAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 20F ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE DOWNEAST COAST.
THINGS GET TRICKY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THURSDAY ON WHAT
HAPPENS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG
DETERMINISTIC SIGNALS OF SHARP NEGATIVE NAO WITH A BIG UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MARITIMES ORIGINATING FROM THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM. OTHERS SHOWING IT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
NEUTRAL NAO BUT GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE PNA THIS MAKES SENSE.
OVERALL, WHAT THAT MEANS IS THE BLEND IS YOUR FRIEND FOR NOW AND
STICKING WITH NBM GIVES US A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA. STARTING OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM N TO S OVER THE CWA AND TOPPING
OUT IN THE 20S GIVEN THE WARMER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH
SOME LOW 30S POSSIBLE FROM BANGOR TO THE COAST. WILL IT BE A
WHITE CHRISTMAS, 1 INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT 7AM EST?
PROBABLY IN MANY SPOTS, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SNOW WILL BE ON THE
GROUND COMPARED TO OTHER HISTORICAL YEARS.
A LOT OF SIGNALS POINT TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP HEADING
INTO THE LAST WEEK OF 2024, BUT WILL ADD THE CAVEAT OF IF
STRONG NAO BLOCKING SETS UP AND SHARP RIDGE IN THE WEST IT WILL
BE COLDER. FOR NOW STUCK WITH BLEND AND THAT DOES RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES GETTING TO OR ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAYS OUT AT
D7-8.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN TO IFR OR
LOWER WITH SNOW. N WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS
GRADUALLY INCREASING, BECOMING 20 TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS SNOW TAPERS OFF.
SHORT TERM: SUN...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT.
MON...VFR. W WIND 5-10KT.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. -SHSN POSSIBLE. N WINDS 5-10KT.
WED...VFR/MVFR. -SHSN POSSIBLE. N WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ABOVE GALE FORCE BY LATE THIS EVENING. A GALE
WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING.
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SCA
LEVELS BY LATE THIS EVENING, WHEN AN SCA GOES INTO EFFECT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE
OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 7AM EST ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING EXPIRES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MON-WED WILL FEATURE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ016-017-
029-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...SINKO
LONG TERM...SINKO
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/SINKO
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/SINKO
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