426
FXUS61 KCAR 211829
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
129 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER LOW
WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1:29PM UPDATE...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REINFORCED OVER
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO N. SOMERSET COUNTY LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT ON THIS FAR BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS GRADIENT IS GETTING SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IN THE
500MB FLOW. CLOUD TOPS SINCE THE LAST UPDATE COOLED RAPIDLY FROM
ABOUT -35C TO -45C BUT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMING IN THE LAST 20MINS.
INDICATING A SIGN OF WINTER CONVECTION AND SOME HI-RES MODEL
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY RIGHT INSIDE
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH FAVORS DECENT SNOWFALL. WEBCAMS
FROM THE GREENVILLE AREA SHOW STEADY LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY SOME
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 16-20:1 ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS VERY FLUFFY SNOW AND LIKELY BLOWING AROUND AS THE
NW WINDS INCREASE AND MESSAGING THIS IN AN SPS. TAF UPDATE AND
MARINE HEADLINE CHANGES NOTED BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA, WITH SOME MODERATE INTENSITY
SNOW OVER EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING OVER OUR REGION WITH RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER OPEN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH AND BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR DOWNEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING UP AND
AWAY TOWARD LABRADOR. A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE.
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND LOWS BY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SUNDAY WILL START OUT BREEZY, AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR, WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OVER THE
NORTH WOODS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO PLACE, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AND WINDS WILL DROP OR CEASE ALL TOGETHER.
THIS WILL MAKE SURFACE TEMPS MONDAY MORNING ALSO THE LOWEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. THE ONE MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE, WHICH SEEMS TO COVER
THE EAST EARLY ON, THEN RETREAT, MOVING IN OVER THE WEST CLOSER
TO MORNING HOURS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 25TH PERCENTILE
SINCE NBM TENDS NOT TO HANDLE THESE ANOMALOUS EVENTS WELL,
HOWEVER, DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO MUCH FURTHER WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. END RESULT IS THAT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW 0F, NEARING -10F IN THE NORTH WOODS AND ALONG
THE WESTERN BORDER. WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE APPROACHING ON
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY AND
REACH THE MID-TEENS IN MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MINOR SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING SOME QPF, WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW GIVEN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE STATE, WHILE EC
PREFERRED A SOUTHERN TRACK, BRINGING SNOW MOSTLY TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER, LATEST RUN OF THE EC INDICATES A TREND NORTHWARD. NBM
HAS NOT CAUGHT UP WITH THIS SHIFT YET, SO BLENDED SOME CONSRAW
TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. HIGHEST
BAND OF QPF IS ALSO LIKELY TO SHIFT NORTHWARD, BUT REGARDLESS,
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH IS EXPECTED. SO OVERALL, ENOUGH SNOW TO PERHAPS
FRESHEN THINGS UP A BIT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.
CHRISTMAS ONWARD LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD, WITH RIDGING
THE DOMINANT FACTOR. A GRADUAL WARMING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR,
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ACCORDINGLY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, CLIMBING TO
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NO ANOMALOUSLY
COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED. THIS TREND IS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT FORECAST
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A POST-CHRISTMAS WARMUP HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY TO THE
BEGINNING PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: 18Z TAFS MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME TERMS AT
IFR DUE TO VSBY. -SHSN AND -SN CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL TERMS
CONTINUES FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING N TO NW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WIND 10 TO 20KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 10 TO 15KTS, BECOMING CALM.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW TO W WIND BECOMING S.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH. S WIND
BECOMING E AROUND 10 KTS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. LIGHT N WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...HAVE EXPIRED THE GALE WARNING AND NOW AN
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM SUNDAY FOR INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS AND THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. NO
OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT, DECREASING BY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
25KTS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO
3 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/SINKO
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...BLOOMER/SINKO/LF
MARINE...BLOOMER/SINKO/LF
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