173
FXUS61 KCAR 151646
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1146 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. A WEAK OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWED DEEP LAYERED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE 800 MB. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD BANGOR AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK, SO OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS, NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA YESTERDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY THROUGH THE
MARITIMES TODAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH AND CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S
DOWNEAST. A BRISK NW WIND 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT ALLOWING THE SKY TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND LOWS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO NEAR 10 DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE CWA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
MOVES EAST WITH A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT CROSSES
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT DISSIPATES
BEFORE EVER REACHING MAINE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FIZZLES OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA, SO ASIDE FROM
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE A SHOT OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH THE ORIGINS IN GREENLAND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THE
SHOT OF COLD AIR IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2023 WHICH WAS ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND, IT LOOKS VERY COLD AND HIGHS COULD
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
PRIOR TO THE COLD, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE FEATURES OF NOTE. THE
FIRST IS MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION, AND RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM, BUT COULD GENERATE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW NORTH. A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THIS
COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT ODDS WOULD FAVOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP THE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
DOWNEAST WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. THE BITTER COLD AIR
WITH ORIGINS IN GREENLAND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY
AIR WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 0.05" AND THIS DRY AIR WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY VERY COLD FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
WOULD BE AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. LIGHT WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE
SATURDAY AND TO IFR IN SNOW NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY
NORTH AND TO VFR DOWNEAST. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
SATURDAY, SHIFTING W/NW ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SCA WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR NW
WIND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
UP TO 4 FT TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS. THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY START LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/TWD
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BLOOMER/TWD/CB
MARINE...BLOOMER/TWD/CB
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