506
FXUS61 KCAR 152100
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATER THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT AND THEN CREST ACROSS
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO SHOW MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS DOWN ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND HOW COLD IT GETS BY DAYBREAK. THINK SKIES MAY REMAIN
MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE WE SEE SOME
CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW EAST OF THE
MARITIMES CONTINUES MOVING EAST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
PLACES APPROACHING THE ZERO MARK. AGAIN, THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ULTIMATELY HINGES ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIGHT WIND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE MOST QUIET WEATHER WITH THE ONLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WATERS OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE. CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY RAIN DOWNEAST AND START OUT AS SNOW FARTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD, LIKELY RESULTING IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD FACILITATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO SNOW. A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THIS COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE
0 IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING,
THEN BECOMING VFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NW WIND
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING
MVFR SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11
PM TONIGHT, THEN WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP SATURDAY TO 4 TO 7 FT. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AS
WELL TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...TWD
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...MELANSON
AVIATION...TWD/MELANSON
MARINE...TWD/MELANSON
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