063
FXUS61 KCAR 160251
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATER THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
9:40PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH, SO
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE
NORTH, SO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS IT SEEMS CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT, REDUCING CHANCES FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOUTH/COAST HAS CLEARED OUT, SO
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP. WINDS AND GUSTS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN CREST ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUED TO SHOW MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS DOWN ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND HOW COLD IT GETS BY DAYBREAK. THINK SKIES MAY
REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE WE SEE SOME
CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW EAST OF THE
MARITIMES CONTINUES MOVING EAST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
PLACES APPROACHING THE ZERO MARK. AGAIN, THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ULTIMATELY HINGES ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIGHT WIND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE MOST QUIET WEATHER WITH THE ONLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WATERS OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE. CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY RAIN DOWNEAST AND START OUT AS SNOW FARTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD, LIKELY RESULTING IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD FACILITATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO SNOW. A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THIS COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE
0 IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT. NW
WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING
MVFR SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN OUTER WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP SATURDAY TO 4 TO 7 FT. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AS
WELL TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/TWD
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...MELANSON
AVIATION...BRENNAN/TWD/MELANSON
MARINE...BRENNAN/TWD/MELANSON
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