613
FXUS61 KCAR 161123
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6:20 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH ONLY A
FEW BREAKS, AND SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER, AND HAD TO ADJUST EARLY MORNING TEMPS UP
WITH THE CLOUDS PREVENTING MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID
AREA OF STRATUS PLASTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
THIS STRATUS A BIT. HOWEVER, FLOW BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK AND SO THERE IS LITTLE MECHANISM TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. WILL
GO MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR
DOWNEAST AND CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME PERSISTING FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTH BENEATH THE STRATUS. TODAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS STILL AROUND. A
VERY WEAK OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT BUT DISSIPATE
UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE SHIFTS INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY AS A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING
AND IS FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH IN NORTHERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE RIDING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY,
AND WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE ALONG WITH A
LIGHT WIND REGIME. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MAINE
COULD PRODUCE A SNOW SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING.
THE WIND WILL START TO PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND SATURDAY THAT WILL TRANSPORT MUCH MILDER AIR
NORTH INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 40F IN BANGOR AND
ALONG THE COAST, AND MAY COME CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK AS FAR
NORTH AS CARIBOU.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
AND WILL TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN IN BANGOR/DOWNEAST, AND SNOW
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND KATAHDIN REGION NORTH. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH.
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST,
AND TO AROUND 25 MPH INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
EVENING IN BANGOR AND DOWNEAST WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
NORTH THAT SHOULD END AS SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY
AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.
ANY STANDING WATER FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT DOWNEAST FREEZES UP
BY EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLD
WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE
NORTH WOODS AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 30
BELOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY THEN BE VFR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: FRIDAY: VFR AND LIGHT WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.
SATURDAY: VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. S/SW WIND 10 TO 20
KNOTS AND GUSTY. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CONDITONS LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN
DOWNEAST. S/SW WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY, SHIFTING WEST LATE.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. W/NW WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND
MOSTLY MVFR AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS. NW WIND 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SEAS AROUND 1 FT.
SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING AND SEAS
BUILDING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT INTO THE
W/NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, BUT SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
ARCTIC SEA SMOKE POSSIBLE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB
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