509
FXUS61 KCAR 170448
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1148 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
11:45 PM UPDATE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
EXCEPT PARTS OF DOWNEAST WHICH HAS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
MODIFIED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.
ELSEWHERE, IT HAS BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING ALL THAT MUCH
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE LIGHT WIND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO RIDGING
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AN ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 20S WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS QUEBEC WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW
FARTHER NORTH.
DESPITE SOME OF THE OUTPUT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WANTED
TO BRING THE RAIN INTO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BARELY ABOVE FREEZING COMBINED WITH THE SHALLOW
WARM LAYER DID NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. INSTEAD, KEPT THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE CITIES OF DOVER-FOXCROFT,
MILLINOCKET, AND HOULTON.
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, INCREASING
INTO THE EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DRIVES THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR LOCALLY STRONGER WHERE
MIXING CAN EFFECTIVELY BRING DOWN WINDS ALOFT.
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF WARM AND NEAR FREEZING, GRADUALLY DECREASING AS COLD
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE IS A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK NOR’EASTER PASSING US
TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE EXISTENCE OF A STORM BUT ARE STILL EXPRESSING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF IT. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WEAK EVENT AND MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK IN TO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD GET WELL BELOW 0 AND MAY NOT EXCEED 0 DURING THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT WIND TUESDAY MAY MAKE
THE AIR FEEL EVEN COLDER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, THAT SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT BY TOMORROW. VFR FOR KBGR/KBHB THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND MVFR SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS WNW 5 TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A 1 FOOT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY,
BECOMING 20-30 MPH WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. GALES POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DECREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH, CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/TWD
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...MELANSON
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/TWD/MELANSON
MARINE...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/TWD/MELANSON
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