097
FXUS61 KCAR 170746
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER THE SOUTH WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
NORTH TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE MID-WINTER NORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS AS SOME MOISTURE PUSHES IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN A COUPLE FLURRIES EARLY THIS
MORNING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TIME OF TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA. SATURDAY
WILL START ON THE MILD SIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MILD SOUTH FLOW. WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH A BIT LESS
WIND INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40F OR PERHAPS
EVEN A BIT BETTER IN BANGOR AND ALONG THE COAST, AND SHOULD GET TO
THE FREEZING MARK AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IN
CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING AND IS
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN ARTIC COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY
TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN IN BANGOR AND THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO RAPIDLY WIND DOWN TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH WITH LITTLE/NO SNOW SOUTH.
MUCH COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST
AREAS SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. BY SUNSET AREAS IN THE NORTH
WILL LIKELY BE BACK IN THE TEENS WITH 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
VERY LIKELY THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON A WINTER STORM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS LOW.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS UP INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND IMPACTS REMAINS LOW. WHAT LOOKS CERTAIN
IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW, AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE DOWNEAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. WHETHER IT MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SOMETHING MORE SIGNIFICANT IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT THAT HAS BEEN QUITE A SHIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE STILL MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT IS HOPEFUL THAT
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO CYCLES THAT THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES WILL
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. FOR NOW, THE BEST ESTIMATE WOULD BE
FOR A 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL DOWNEAST AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES WITH LESS AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL EVENT AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONVERGE.
AFTER THIS LOW PULLS AWAY IT IS BREEZY AND COLD WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MASS SO FAR THIS WINTER. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WHEN
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH, AND WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO 30 BELOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.
SLOW MODERATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS
WITH A BITTER CHILL.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS VERY LIGHT SW TODAY THEN LIGHT S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SATURDAY: VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. S/SW WIND
10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CONDITONS LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN
DOWNEAST. S/SW WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY, SHIFTING WEST LATE.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. W/NW WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. POTENTIAL
THAT SNOW OVERSPREADS THAT AREA WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. NE WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING NW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
AND MVFR/VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1 FT TODAY, BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE INCREASES.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS WITH LOW END GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY
BECOME A CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ARCTIC SEA SMOKE
POSSIBLE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB
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