539
FXUS61 KCAR 180000
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
700 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
7:00PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA,
MAKING WAY FOR SOME UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT, BUT NOT TOO LOW
AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD TRAP RADIATION. UPDATED
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. EXTENDED ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE MORNING BASED ON
SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS
AND KEEPING SWRLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE CLOUDED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.
SFC LOW SITTING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN UPWARDS OF 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS OVER DOWNEAST UP AROUND 40 AND IN THE
NORTH IN THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DETERMINE INITIAL P-TYPE WITH RAIN
OVER DOWNEAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AT ONSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SURGE OF WARM AIR OVER ERN ZONES MIXING RAIN IN WITH SNOW DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE
SNOW IN NORTHEAST MAINE. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN MAY OCCUR. DOWNEAST
SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AND THE NORTH WOODS SHOULD REMAIN ALL
SNOW. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES, SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHERN REGIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE UPPER 30'S
AND LOWER 40'S DOWNEAST WHILE REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FARTHER NORTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL.
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SOME CLEARING
MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND MOVES NORTH, PASSING US JUST TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THE EXISTENCE OF A STORM BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER
LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE REGION. CONTRARILY, THE EURO
ENSEMBLES FOLLOW A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH.
CURRENTLY, ARE CALLING FOR THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE
LOCATED IN EASTERN AND COASTAL REGIONS BUT WILL HAVE TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY CHANGES IN TRACKS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE ARCTIC COLD OVER THE
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. CLOUD CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP
TOMORROW, AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT, SO IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, STILL
EXPECTING LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO REGION-WIDE EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT
AT THE COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE, WITH MANY SPOTS IN THE NORTH POSSIBLY FAILING
TO RISE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES. GIVEN FORECAST WIND CHILLS, COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THUS, TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THAT SAID, DID NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES YET,
GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MOVES AWAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR/VFR TONIGHT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD DECKS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT
TO SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LLWS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR
TOMORROW, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS.
CLOUD CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP TOMORROW, AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
TO START TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP TOMORROW
MORNING. LLWS LOOKS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW. GUSTY
CONDITIONS OCCUR TOMORROW. RAIN EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY AND MVFR FOR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH, BECOMING WESTERLY. VFR SUNDAY, BECOMING MVFR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP 25 TO 35 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DOWNEAST AND MVFR/VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WIND 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH OUTER WATERS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS WITH LOW END GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. GALES ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ARCTIC SEA SMOKE POSSIBLE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...BRENNAN/BUSTER/MELANSON
MARINE...BRENNAN/BUSTER/MELANSON
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