590
FXUS61 KCAR 180850
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A LARGE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR TODAY, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE EXITING RIDGE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN CAUSING THE S WIND TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, THE S WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING TEMPS UP ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S IN THE NORTH. THE
PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW, BUT WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS, BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
SET UP FOR THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE S WINDS, THE SPEED OF THE FRONT
AND THE WARMING TEMPS, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL STAY JUST NORTH
OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER, AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE
ANTIDIURNAL TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
SEE RAIN TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
AND THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL END.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY, CROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE NORTH UP THE BAY OF FUNDY
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK, WITH THIS
STREAK APPROACHING 180 KTS BY THE TIME THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO OUR AREA.
THERE REMAINS A FEW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ACROSS GUIDANCE, BUT
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING. ONE OF THE KEY DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT IS WHETHER MESOSCALE BANDING WILL SET UP, AND IF SO,
WHERE IT WILL BE. THE CMC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE BANDING, WITH THE GFS NOT FAR
BEHIND. THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LACK AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
SETUP, ESPECIALLY OVER LAND, BUT ARE COMING INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH LOW TRACK. THE NBM, BEING TIME LAGGED,
WAS NOT THE PRIMARY BASIS OF THIS FORECAST AS THE CONVERGING
SOLUTION BECOMES WASHED OUT IN THIS BLEND.
THE KEY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS IF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. MODELS WHICH LEAVE AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT
BRING MORE MILD PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF OUR CWA AND TIME THAT THE JET WILL HAVE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THE LOW TO DEEPEN TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS
FORECAST REFLECTS THE SOLUTION OF A CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE BANDING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARM UPON
ONSET, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, BUT AS THE LOW MOVES IN,
THE PROFILE SHIFTS COLDER TO WITHIN THE DGZ WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SUPPORT, AND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SLRS
LEADING TO HIGH SNOWFALL RATES, POTENTIALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. COUPLED WITH WINDS WHICH MAY GUST 30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A FACTOR WHILE SNOW IS
ACTIVELY FALLING, AND COULD LIMIT VISIBILITY, RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUOUSLY FALL THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME, BOTTOMING OUT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS MAY LINGER. IF
WINDS DECREASE FASTER AND BECOME CALM, FULL SURFACE DECOUPLING
OVER A FRESH SNOW PACK COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
EVEN FURTHER. WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS COULD EASILY FALL INTO
THE MID 20S BELOW IN THE NORTH, APPROACHING 30 BELOW. DOWNEAST,
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW. THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS STORM, AND
COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO OUTDOOR CLEANUP EFFORTS. REMEMBER TO WEAR
APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, INCLUDING A COAT, HAT, AND GLOVES WHEN
OUTSIDE IN THESE COLD TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ARCTIC RIDGE MAY SETUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE RIDGE COULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS TIME EVEN THE EXISTENCE OF
ANOTHER LOW IN THIS AREA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THEN DECREASING TO MVFR CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT BY THE
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
AND SNOW FOR THE NORTH. LLWS FOR ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SUN: CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. NW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR CIGS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
DOWNEAST IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS, WITH
COASTAL TERMINALS GUSTING TO 30 KTS.
MON - WED: CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SW TO NE. W
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, DECREASING INTO WED.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS BEGINS THIS MORNING AND LASTS
UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON SUNDAY, THE OUTER WATERS COULD SEE A RETURN TO GALES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STORM CROSSES THE WATERS. THE
INTRACOASTALS COULD REMAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS TIME. SEAS AS THE LOW CROSSES MAY APPROACH 6 TO 9 FT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 25 KTS OR BELOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE STORM, WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TOWARDS 3 TO 5
FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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