033
FXUS61 KCAR 190209
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
909 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
905 PM UPDATE...BUMPED UP POPS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS TO
FURTHER INCREASE EXPECTED RAINFALL DOWNEAST TOWARDS ONE-HALF
INCH AND MENTIONED MODERATE RAINFALL INTENSITIES. TOWARDS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY, THE WARM LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND SNOW IS
ALREADY REPORTED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLING OFF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW NORTH OF I-95 LATER TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT, BUMPED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS TONIGHT TOWARDS AN INCH OR
TWO IN MUCH OF NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL
BE FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 1000 FT. ALSO MADE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO THE WEST OF HUDSON/S BAY HAS DRAPED A COLD FRONT THRU WRN
QUEBEC INTO EASTERN OHIO. WARM ADVECTION FLURRIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED
MENTION OF FLURRIES/SLIGHT CHC SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SOUTH
JERSEY COAST. THIS IS LIKELY IN RELATION TO COMPACT S/WV MOVING THRU
PA ALONG WITH FAVORABLE REGION OF JET STREAK MOVING OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN OVER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES
PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ALL AREAS SEEING SOME FORM
OF PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH RAIN THROUGH INTERIOR DOWNEAST, POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS HOULTON. WITH ADDED FORCING FROM WEAK SFC LOW HEADING FROM
THE CASCO BAY AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH BANGOR AROUND 06Z AND
TOWARD CALAIS BY 08Z HAVE MAINTAINED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT FROM GREENVILLE UP
TOWARD VAN BUREN AT THIS TIME. OVERALL EXPECTING AROUND 1 INCH OVER
THE ST. JOHN VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXISTS WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND 1/2
TO 1 INCH BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER 20S AND BY EVENING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LIKEWISE TEMPS OVER DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S/AROUND
40 AND BY EVENING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANY STANDING WATER THAT
REMAINS ON AREA ROADS WILL FREEZE, LEADING TO BLACK ICE. NEXT STORM
LIKELY TO BE ON OUR DOORSTEP SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THAT TIME.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO STRONGER AGREEMENT REGARDING STORM TRACK WITH
THE 12Z SUITE. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
NORTHWESTWARD, WHILE THE CMC AND RGEM HAVE TRENDED
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE MODELS ALL BRING A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDAY OR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE 12Z NAM WAS A SOUTHEASTERN
OUTLIER, WITH THE 12Z FV3 BEING A NORTHWESTERN OUTLIER. HREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW BANDING SETTING UP
ALONG I-95 AND POSSIBLY ROUTE 1 OR ROUTE 1A IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
HOWEVER, EVEN A SMALL SHIFT IN STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT THE
LOCATION OF ANY BANDING, WHICH WOULD AFFECT SNOW TOTALS.
BASED ON THESE FACTORS, THERE WAS ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 8"+ ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER NORTHWEST TO JUSTIFY EXPANDING THE WATCH FURTHER.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS
THE EVENT DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE 3RD FORECAST PERIOD.
SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY TO MID EVENING FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST. THE SNOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER. SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD HOLD ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WITH
WIND GUSTS REACHING 25-35 MPH, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A THREAT
DURING AND JUST AFTER THE STORM.
THE OTHER STORY DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
WILL USHER IN THE COLD SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH, WITH TEENS
FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORTH. WITH WINDS STILL ELEVATED, COULD SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES THERE. BANGOR AND DOWNEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
COLD DAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR
NORTH. SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER, CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MEAN ENOUGH LIGHT WINDS TO PREVENT FULL
DECOUPLING. STILL EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA COULD BRING SNOW LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AT BGR AND BHB
TONIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIP AT HUL, PQI AND CAR TONIGHT AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO START. FVE LIKELY TO REMAIN SNOW
TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR AFTER 12Z. LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM:
SUN NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NW WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS,WITH COASTAL TERMINALS GUSTING TO
30 KTS.
MON: IFR OR LOWER EARLY AM WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. TRENDING
TO MAINLY VFR FROM SW TO NE. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-30 KTS.
MON NIGHT - TUE: VFR. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT - THU: VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
EXPECT THAT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT
AND BETWEEN 3 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL STORM TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. GALES WILL CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER MONDAY AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY MIDWEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...BUSTER/CLARK
MARINE...BUSTER/CLARK
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