994
FXUS61 KCAR 191735
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:30 PM UPDATE...INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER DOWNEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALSO
INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STUBBORN CLOUD COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
THIS EVENING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE, HEADING UP INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS BANDING WILL LIKELY SETTLE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND, BUT HIRES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONVERGING ON THE WASHINGTON COUNTY AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, IT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN, LEADING TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH. COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL, BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY IN THESE SNOW BANDS, MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM EXITING FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO ADJUSTED
THE TIMING TO SHOW THIS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO END, THOUGH BREEZY SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN.
THE 925MB MODEL TEMPS SHOW AN AREA OF -26C ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH -20C IN THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD THE TEMPS
WILL GET. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH W WINDS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IF THE
AREA IS ABLE TO DECOUPLE, RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD CAUSE TEMPS
TO DROP FURTHER. AS OF THIS UPDATE, WIND CHILLS OF -30 IN THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED WITH -20 TO TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY, WEAK RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA. THOUGH
CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE DAY, THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN
THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY,
CREATING A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE WEAK RIDGE SHOULD STICK AROUND, MAKING FOR
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. THOUGH WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
LOW AS TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILLS
TO REACH INTO -20 IN THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE AREA THROUGH TO
THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR COLD DAYS AND NIGHTS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY, EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW, SO WENT WITH THE NBM AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR FROM CAR NORTHWARD THROUGH 20Z, WITH MVFR AT HUL
AND PQI. HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR AT BGR AND VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP
BACK TOWARDS IFR/LIFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, MOVES INTO THE AREA. BRIEF LLWS REMAINS IN THE AREA
BEFORE IMPROVING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAFS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MON: IFR OR LOWER EARLY AM WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR FROM SW TO NE. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS,
GUSTING 20-30 KTS.
MON NIGHT - TUE: VFR. W-NW WINDS 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT - THU: VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A STORM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSSES THE
WATERS TONIGHT, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND A RETURN OF SEAS
APPROACHING 6 TO 9 FT.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO SCA AND REMAIN
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/LAFLASH
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/LAFLASH
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