404
FXUS61 KCAR 192353
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
653 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
655 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS AND DWPTS WITH THIS UPDATE. LIGHT
SNOW IS MOVING IN JUST A TAD QUICKER THAN THOUGHT AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL EXPECTING BETWEEN 7-9 INCHES
OVER THE WARNING AREA BY MORNING BUT WITH LIGHT SNOW HAVING
ALREADY MOVED INTO LEWISTON HAVE BUMPED UP TIMING BY AN HOUR
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF COASTAL FROM
YESTERDAY/S RUNS THINK THAT WASHINGTON COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE THE
HIGHEST TOTALS BUT IMPACT WILL BE FELT FROM THE BANGOR REGION
SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WITHIN
A FEW HOURS OF MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT, AND INTO NOVA
SCOTIA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. THUS, LOWERED SNOW TOTALS A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE QPF WILL BE LOWER. KEPT AMOUNTS SIMILAR
IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST, WHERE THE 12Z HREF SHOWS SNOW
BANDING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. STILL A QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH SNOW BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH THIS STORM. THUS,
LEFT ALL HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 3 TO 5
INCHES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA NORTH OF ABOUT
DOVER-FOXCROFT TO HOULTON. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY,
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE NUMBERS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA, AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 9 INCHES. A
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTAL WHERE THE BEST BANDING SETS UP CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNING.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, SNOW WILL START IN THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST 8-9PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH,
ARRIVING IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIER RATES COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH, RATES WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. REGARDLESS, WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF FALLING SNOW.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND BY LATE MORNING IN THE KATAHDIN AREA. AREAS
FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW END BY MID-MORNING, BUT
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY DURING THE STORM. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD, AND TEENS SOUTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE STORM WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH
ON MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE -20S IN THE NORTH AND TEENS BELOW ZERO SOUTH.
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE DROPPED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST OF LABRADOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BASED ON APPARENT TEMPERATURES, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE DOWNEAST
REGION, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 20 BELOW TO AROUND
30 BELOW ZERO NORTH, TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO DOWNEAST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR
DOWNEAST, MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES. EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 5
ABOVE NORTH, TO 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. APPARENT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD AGAIN FALL TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROF
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SCATTERED FLURRIES. AN INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER THE LOW HAS
ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. A MORE NORTHERN TRACK COULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD TO CLIP THE
DOWNEAST REGION. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COULD KEEP SNOW ENTIRELY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVENTUAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE CHANGES OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, HELPING REINFORCE
THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FALLING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR OVER TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB BY 02Z BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING TO LIFR IN
SNOW, COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW. NOT FORECASTING MUCH
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL BETWEEN 10Z-12Z MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY MID-MORNING.
FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AFTER 04Z AT HUL AND AFTER
07Z OVER OTHER AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS AT HUL AFTER 06Z
AND AT PQI AND CAR AFTER 08Z IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FVE WILL
SEE IFR AFTER 10Z WITH ALL TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR MID-LATE
MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR/MVFR. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS THURSDAY. VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A COASTAL STORM TRACKING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE OUTER
WATERS MONDAY, WITH 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE INNER WATERS. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, AND BECOME MODERATE BY
LATE MONDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS LATE MONDAY. SNOW AND RAIN TONIGHT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BUSTER/CLARK/NORCROSS
MARINE...BUSTER/CLARK/NORCROSS
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