105
FXUS61 KCAR 200609
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
109 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
109 AM UPDATE: SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS
EVENING, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO ONE HALF
TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. DRY AIR
IN THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW HAVING MADE IT INTO HOULTON, AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWARDS FROM THERE. WITH THIS FORECAST, ONSET TIMES OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN THE NORTH WERE DELAYED ONCE MORE DUE TO
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTH DUE TO THESE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT, AND INTO NOVA
SCOTIA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. THUS, LOWERED SNOW TOTALS A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE QPF WILL BE LOWER. KEPT AMOUNTS SIMILAR
IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST, WHERE THE 12Z HREF SHOWS SNOW
BANDING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. STILL A QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH SNOW BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH THIS STORM. THUS,
LEFT ALL HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 3 TO 5
INCHES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA NORTH OF ABOUT
DOVER-FOXCROFT TO HOULTON. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY,
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE NUMBERS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA, AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 9 INCHES. A
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTAL WHERE THE BEST BANDING SETS UP CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNING.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, SNOW WILL START IN THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST 8-9PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH,
ARRIVING IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. HEAVIER RATES COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH, RATES WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. REGARDLESS, WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF FALLING SNOW.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND BY LATE MORNING IN THE KATAHDIN AREA. AREAS
FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW END BY MID-MORNING, BUT
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY DURING THE STORM. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD, AND TEENS SOUTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE STORM WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH
ON MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE -20S IN THE NORTH AND TEENS BELOW ZERO SOUTH.
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE DROPPED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST OF LABRADOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BASED ON APPARENT TEMPERATURES, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE DOWNEAST
REGION, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 20 BELOW TO AROUND
30 BELOW ZERO NORTH, TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO DOWNEAST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR
DOWNEAST, MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES. EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 5
ABOVE NORTH, TO 10 TO 15 DOWNEAST. APPARENT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD AGAIN FALL TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROF
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SCATTERED FLURRIES. AN INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER THE LOW HAS
ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. A MORE NORTHERN TRACK COULD
POSSIBLY ALLOW THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD TO CLIP THE
DOWNEAST REGION. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COULD KEEP SNOW ENTIRELY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVENTUAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE CHANGES OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY, HELPING REINFORCE
THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FALLING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. LIFR
CONTINUES FROM HUL SOUTH IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL COMBINED
WITH BLOWING SNOW. NORTHERN TERMINAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
WORSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MVFR TO IFR MORE LIKELY BY
10Z. IMPROVEMENT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING TOWARDS VFR.
NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS, SHIFTING W AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR/MVFR. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS THURSDAY. VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A COASTAL STORM TRACKING OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS INTO MONDAY. A GALE WARNING
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9
FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY, WITH 3 TO 5 FEET
ON THE INNER WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, AND BECOME MODERATE BY LATE MONDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS LATE MONDAY. SNOW
AND RAIN TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ002-004>006-010-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-
015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/CLARK
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/NORCROSS
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/CLARK/NORCROSS
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