506  
FXUS61 KCAR 201148  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
648 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COASTAL LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN OCEAN LOW  
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...  
 
648 AM UPDATE: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO QUICKLY  
EXIT THE AREA, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA  
BEHIND THE LOW. THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE GUSTY  
WINDS ARE PICKING UP RECENT SNOWFALL, LEADING TO PLENTY OF  
DRIFTING AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING  
SNOW.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARDS  
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENING  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND THE  
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW  
WINDS, ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST, SNOWFALL  
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH  
ANY LINGERING MODERATE SNOWFALL MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.  
 
THOUGH FALLING SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH MID-MORNING, GUSTY WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SNOW TO DRIFT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING  
TRAVEL AND CLEANUP EFFORTS. BLOWING SNOW THAT SEVERELY IMPACTS  
VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUSTAINED WINDS  
WILL NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT GROUND SNOW TODAY, BUT  
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL DRIFTING AND BLOWING.  
 
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF, BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL STILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME, IT WILL TAKE  
SOME TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS  
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE  
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO DECOUPLE WILL BE THE  
DOWNEAST REGION, AND OVER FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, THIS CAN AID  
TEMPERATURES IN DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10  
BELOW ZERO WITHOUT CONSIDERING WIND CHILLS. IN THE NORTH, AIR  
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW DUE TO PURE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION, WITH WIND CHILLS THEN FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW  
RANGE. WINDS MAY TAPER OFF IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AND SHOULD  
SKIES BE CLEAR ENOUGH, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE DECOUPLING  
AROUND SUNRISE THAT ALLOWS AIR TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES TO MAKE A  
RUN FOR 20 BELOW. WHETHER CAUSED BY WIND CHILLS OR PURE AIR  
TEMPERATURES, BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH  
CONFIDENCE (90 PERCENT) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE WHERE THE  
CLOUD DECK SHOULD THICKEN. DECIDED TO INCLUDE FLURRIES WITH THE  
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT IN THE NORTH AND  
TEENS IN THE SOUTH. BREEZY WSW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIND  
CHILLS DOWN TO TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS  
BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE. UPPER AIR MODELS  
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, DECREASING CLOUDS  
AND WINDS. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND WEAK WINDS, DECOUPLING IS  
EXPECTED, CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, BUT  
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HAPPEN  
DURING THE NIGHT.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.  
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN  
THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE WILL START TO EXIT TO THE EAST.  
TEMPS WILL START TO MODERATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S AND  
THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING. WINDS CHILLS ARE NOT A CONCERN.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW  
ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WEAK  
RIDGING RETURNS WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AND COLD NIGHT TIME  
TEMPS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SURFACE TROF COULD BRING A ROUND OF  
SNOW TO THE AREA, HOWEVER LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN  
THE MODELS GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AS OF THIS  
UPDATE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS  
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SNOW AND LOW CIGS, WITH RAPID  
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NW WINDS 10  
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS, SHIFTING W AND DECREASING TO  
5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: TUES...VFR. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.  
 
TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUES  
NIGHT. W WINDS 5-10 KTS WED. LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT.  
 
THU-THU NIGHT...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE NORTH IN SNOW.  
SSW WINDS 5-10 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KTS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY  
WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY  
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BECOMING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY UNDER  
LINGERING GALE FORCE TO STRONG SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS.  
 
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN  
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY  
ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE  
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
MEZ002-005-006.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-  
015>017-029-030-032.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.  
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER  
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH  
LONG TERM...LAFLASH  
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/LAFLASH  
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/LAFLASH  
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