343
FXUS61 KCAR 201828
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. SNOW HAS
MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR STEADY, OR SLOWLY FALL, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW
WINDS, ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF, BUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME, IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO DECOUPLE WILL BE THE
DOWNEAST REGION, AND OVER FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, THIS CAN AID
TEMPERATURES IN DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
BELOW ZERO WITHOUT CONSIDERING WIND CHILLS. IN THE NORTH, AIR
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW DUE TO PURE COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WITH WIND CHILLS THEN FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW
RANGE. WINDS MAY TAPER OFF IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AND SHOULD
SKIES BE CLEAR ENOUGH, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE DECOUPLING
AROUND SUNRISE THAT ALLOWS AIR TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES TO MAKE A
RUN FOR 20 BELOW. WHETHER CAUSED BY WIND CHILLS OR PURE AIR
TEMPERATURES, BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE (90 PERCENT) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE WHERE THE
CLOUD DECK SHOULD THICKEN. DECIDED TO INCLUDE FLURRIES WITH THE
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT IN THE NORTH AND
TEENS IN THE SOUTH. BREEZY WSW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE. UPPER AIR MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND WEAK WINDS, DECOUPLING IS
EXPECTED, CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE WILL START TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
TEMPS WILL START TO MODERATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE S AND
THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING. WINDS CHILLS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WEAK
RIDGING RETURNS WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AND COLD NIGHT TIME
TEMPS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SURFACE TROF COULD BRING A ROUND OF
SNOW TO THE AREA, HOWEVER LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN
THE MODELS GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AS OF THIS
UPDATE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
TONIGHT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS TODAY. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: TUES...VFR. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUES
NIGHT. W WINDS 5-10 KTS WED. LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE NORTH IN SNOW.
SSW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/ASTRAUSER
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH
AVIATION...NORCROSS/LAFLASH
MARINE...NORCROSS/LAFLASH
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